992
FXUS61 KRNK 281838
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
238 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will track across the mid-Atlantic states today,
then shift northeast off the New England coast Saturday. A
frontal boundary to our south will keep moisture around
into Saturday, with chances for showers and storms. Another
front moves in from the northwest Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Upslope scattered showers/few storms through Friday night.

2) More rounds of scattered showers Saturday

Shower activity has been sparse today so far, but high res
models remain insistent that there will be scattered pockets of
precipitation later this afternoon and evening. They won`t be
particularly heavy or well organized. Moisture advection from a
high to our northeast will cause a mostly upslope event along
the mountains of southwest VA and northwest NC.

As for Saturday, a broad but deepening upper trough becomes more
centrally placed over the eastern CONUS/Mid-Atlantic. This
accompanies an approaching front from Canada/Great Lakes. Storms
will be better organized than Friday, and there is a marginal
risk for severe storms mainly north of the I-64 corridor.

Temperatures will be above normal, and with the aforementioned
moisture advection heat indices in the Piedmont and Southside VA
could approach 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and Humid Sunday, cooler and drier by Monday.
2. Showers and storms on Sunday, with locally heavy rainfall
possible.
3. Primary threat is damaging wind.

A strong upper level trough will track eastward over the Great Lakes
and into the northeastern US through the weekend, and into the
Atlantic by the beginning of the work week. The associated surface
frontal system will move through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region, with the cold front reaching the western border of the
forecast area late Saturday morning, crossing the area through
Sunday. Showers and storms from Saturday may linger overnight into
Sunday, which could impact the day`s high temperatures, depending on
the coverage of residual cloud cover during the morning hours. This
will also play into the potential for severe weather later during
Sunday afternoon and evening, as cloud cover could limit diurnal
destabilization. That being said, the front will provide a better
forcing mechanism for storm development, and increased deep layer
shear could lead to better storm organization, thus increasing the
potential for storms to become severe. The primary threat with any
of these storms would be strong and damaging winds, with high DCAPE
forecast, and moderate to locally heavy rainfall is still possible,
with above normal precipitable water, indicating plenty of
atmospheric moisture available. Timing of the frontal passage itself
will also influence the potential for severe storms; if it coincides
with the peak diurnal heating, then severe potential is greater.
Another factor that could influence the possibility of severe storms
is the duration of prefrontal showers and storms that could linger
overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air works into the region as high
pressure builds over the northeast. Temperatures will fall closer to
seasonal normals, but the biggest difference will be felt with the
drier air, and thus lack of humidity. The surface high will keep the
weather quiet Monday and Tuesday, making for a pleasant start to the
work week, after a hot and humid day on Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Increasing temperature and humidity through the period.
2. Showers and storms possible Wednesday into Thursday.
3. Hot and humid weather possible for Independence Day.

Surface high pressure will remain situated over the region through
Tuesday, keeping the weather dry and quiet. By midweek, an upper
ridge starts to build over the southeastern states, increasing 500mb
heights over the area, and temperatures will start trending warmer.
Southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will start to
advect moisture into the area, increasing the humidity through the
middle of the week as well. The combination of increasing
temperature and humidity will cause heat indices to rise to the
upper 90s to near 100 in the VA Southside and NC Piedmont around
Independence Day. The return flow around the high could spark
showers and thunderstorms over the southern Blue Ridge, however,
coverage is uncertain at this time, given differences in the long
range deterministic models.

The previously mentioned cold front will slowly approach the Ohio
Valley Thursday, keeping shower and storm chances in the forecast
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday into Friday, as the region
remains in the warm sector until the frontal passage. At this time,
the front looks to orient more west to east, and stall across the
Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, which would continue shower chances
through the end of the work week, but with this being at the end of
the forecast period, details are uncertain, and thus forecast
confidence is lower late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

High probability for VFR for terminals through the period. Some
MVFR ceilings are possible at BLF/BCB/ROA if showers move across
but coverage today looks limited more toward the NC mountains,
south of ROA/BCB/BLF.

Winds will be light this morning then turning east to southeast
today and increasing to 8-12kts especially west of the Blue
Ridge.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR possibly IFR after 07z at most
sites. These will come back up to low end VFR or MVFR by late
morning as we start to experience convection and showers around
the area. Confidence in location, and the expected coverage of
storms Saturday afternoon are too low to include it as the
prevailing condition in TAFs.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions is expected Saturday and Sunday, but VFR outside of
any storms.

Monday-Tuesday appears to be VFR as high pressure works in from
the north.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VFJ/WP
NEAR TERM...VFJ/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...VFJ/WP