197
FXUS61 KRNK 060707
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
307 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist airmass will remain over the area through
today promoting showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the region this evening, with drier and cooler
weather to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 246 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Locally dense fog early this morning.

2) A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon east of the
Blue Ridge.

Moisture-laden ground and high dewpoints have led to patchy areas of
dense fog, mainly in the mountains/foothills, but cloud cover also
around keeping fog from becoming more widespread.

Will see ground fog diminish toward dawn as more clouds along with a
few showers/storms start to track into WV/SW VA ahead of a cold
front.

Models in somewhat good agreement on timing having best chance of
showers/storms in the mountains between 12-18z, then heading to the
piedmont into the afternoon. With some solar insolation, MLCAPEs
could reach 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon over the Piedmont, and
with the frontal convergence along with some 0-6km bulk shear around
20kts, a few storms may bring some gusty to locally damaging
winds. The HRRR Neural Network Convective Hazard forecast
suggest strongest storm chances will be east of the Blue Ridge,
with more of a bullseye around Lynchburg to Richmond in the
2pm-7pm time frame.

Precipitable water stays elevated through the afternoon, but starts
to fall back to normal to below normal levels of 0.8 to 1.4 inches
in the mountains by dusk. Even though storm motion of 15-25 mph from
the west exists, some locally heavy downpours could cause isolated
flooding issues, though heavy rainfall amounts have been very
isolated the past 48 hours.

The main front tracks east of the forecast area this evening
with showers/storms ending in the mountains by late afternoon
and the piedmont this evening. A secondary front could produce
an isolated shower over southeast WV after 00z/Thu but low
chance.

Overnight, expect clearing skies and patchy fog as winds behind this
system are going to stay under 10 mph, but may be enough mixing to
prevent widespread fog.

Temperatures today should manage to get into the 80s east of the
mountains with 70s in the mountains, maybe around 80 New River
Valley.

Tonight, the cooler air lags a bit, but should be in the 50s in the
mountains with 60s east.

Forecast confidence is average on all elements.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Drier and cooler weather through Saturday.
2. Chances for showers and storms return Sunday.

An upper level low will sit over southeastern Canada through the
weekend, with troughing extending into the eastern US. Surface high
pressure will spread over the area from the west Friday, bringing an
end to showers from the frontal passage Thursday. This surface high
remains overhead through the first half of the weekend. Another cold
front approaches and then crosses the area Sunday, increasing
chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon, with the greatest
probabilities along and west of the Blue Ridge, as mainly westerly
winds will limit potential for storms in the east. With the surface
high blocking much of the greater moisture from the Gulf, not
thinking as much potential for heavy rain as earlier in the week.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday,
with continued northwesterly flow aloft from the upper low to the
north of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

 1. Drier weather to start the week, but possible mountain
showers.
2. Cooler Monday and Tuesday, warming temperatures
after midweek.
3. Showers and storms possible Wednesday.

Following the frontal passage on Sunday, cooler and drier surface
high pressure pushes into the area from the north. This will bring a
decrease in temperatures and dewpoints, and Monday and Tuesday will
be cooler than normal. The front looks to stall across the
southeastern US Atlantic coast through the first half of the work
week, and general troughing aloft will keep chances for afternoon
showers in the mountains Monday and possibly Tuesday. Ridging builds
in overhead after Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to start
climbing back towards normal for the middle of the work week. An
upper trough tracks eastward towards the area, with its associated
cold front reaching the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians
sometime Wednesday or Thursday, though long range deterministic
models differ on specific timing.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 144 AM EDT Thursday...

Expect a lull showers/storms this morning but at times
cigs/vsbys will be in the IFR range.
-SHRA/-TSRA approaching BLF/LWB by 12-14z, but moreso late
 morning. Scattered to broken line of convection to move
 east/southeast into late afternoon. Will put VCTS in but tempo
 with highest chance for showers/storms, so looking at 16-18z
 mountains to 19-22 for the piedmont.

Aside from storms lower cigs will lift to mainly VFR except
sub-VFR in storms during the day. Winds turn from the southwest
to west as a front moves through. A few gusts to 20kts possible
ahead of the front.

Any shower/storms should be east of us by 00z with VFR through
06z/Fri.

Forecast confidence is average on all elements.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front. VFR through the extended period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP