450
FXUS61 KRNK 111728
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
128 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will generally remain unchanged through the
weekend. With warm and moist airMASS lingering across the
region, expect isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, fog and
low clouds will be possible, especially for river valleys and
areas that saw rain the previous day. Temperatures across the
area will generally run around or just above normal values for
this time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and muggy conditions expected.

2) Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible with locally
heavy downpours but low severe threat.

Weak impulse moving out of southeast KY was generating a cluster
of storms along the KY/VA border, with isolated showers pop up
across the Blue Ridge.

Should see mainly convection to be widely scattered this
afternoon along/west of the Blue Ridge. May see isolated storms
in the Piedmont.

Storm motions will be slow, generally under 15kts, so not out of
the question for some localized flooding issues, but again will
be isolated, so no watches.

Showers/storms fade this evening leading to another night for
fog formation. May not be as widespread as this morning but
where it rains and in the mountain valleys, dense fog is
possible.

Saturday, upper support remains limited til late afternoon, with
models bringing an upper shortwave into northeast TN. This may
bring a better chance over far southwest VA into the NC
mountains by late afternoon with scattered convection east.
Again, severe parameters are limited but not zero. Localized
flooding remains a concern due to slow storm movement.

Temperatures tomorrow will range from around 90 east to the
lower 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms.
2. Isolated local heavy rain/flooding remains a concern.
3. Above normal temperatures.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday night a trough extending southwest from
the western Great Lakes to the Central Plains states. This trough is
flanked by high pressure over both SW and SE CONUS. For
Sunday/Sunday night, the trough is expected to shift eastward a bit,
but concurrently become less amplified. On Monday/Monday night, the
trough continues shifting east. However, it is expected to become
absorbed within a broader longwave trough pattern which will cover
most of central Canada. The high pressure ridge is expected to
continue to cover most of CONUS south of roughly 40 N latitude.

At the surface, for Saturday night, a cold front will extend south
across the western Great Lakes and curve into Central Plains states.
A weak area of low pressure will be across eastern parts of
VA/NC/SC. A ridge of high pressure will be across the Gulf Coast
states and extend to off the east coast of FL. For Sunday/Sunday
night, the cold front will advance closer to our region, reaching
the Ohio Valley by the evening hours. The weak area of low pressure
over eastern VA/NC/SC will hold fast. For Monday/Monday night, the
cold front reaches and interacts with the weak area of low pressure
over eastern VA/NC/SC.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures across the area are expected to range from
+19C to +20C on Sunday and Monday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Little
change is expected in our overall weather pattern. With the center
of high pressure to our south and southeast, anti-cyclonic flow will
help keep advective plenty of Gulf moisture into our region. With a
a weak low pressure hugging the east coast, and a front approaching
and then arriving from the northwest, showers/storms will continue
to be a daily occurrence across the area. Most of these will occur
during the afternoon/evening. Coverage should be the most organized
on Monday with the arrival of the cold front. There will be daily
concerns for localized heavy rain that could lead to flooding,
especially in areas where multiple showers/storms cross the same
area in a short period of time. Temperatures will continue in the
above normal range.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
s of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Continuation of daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms.
2. Above normal temperatures.
3. Heat Index values may reach 100F for eastern sections Thurs/Fri.

A look a the 11 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night a longwave trough over much
of central Canada. Within this feature will exist some weaker
shortwave troughs moving within the broader flow. One is expected to
be over the Canadian Maritimes and another over Manitoba southwest
into MT. A broad region of high pressure will continue across at
least the southern half of CONUS. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the
broad longwave trough over central Canada is expected to make
progress south, reaching the northern third of the US. The longwave
trough axis is expected to be over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region by Wednesday evening. For Thursday/Thursday night,
little change is expected in the overall synoptic pattern. At best
the longwave trough axis shifts to over the western Great Lakes
region. A broad area of high pressure remains over southern CONUS.
On Friday, there may be a small retreat north of the longwave trough
as its axis shifts to over the Quebec/Ontario border. Another trough
is expected to be approaching the US Pacific NW.

At the surface, through this portion of the forecast, a center of
high pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary over the
western Atlantic, off the coast of the mid-Atlantic and SE US
region. The cyclonic flow around this high will help advect weak
disturbance north into our region from off the Gulf of America. By
Friday, a more robust area of low pressure and its associated cold
front are expected to be progressing through the mid to upper
Mississippi River Valley.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to range from +19C to +20C
through Thursday. On Friday values are forecast to dip slightly to
+18C to +19C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
pattern of moist anti-cylonic flow across our region will continue
through the remainder of the work week. Combined with daytime
heating our forecast does not change a lot compared to the first
half of the week. Additional afternoon/evening showers/storms are
again expected each day. Tuesday may have the least activity
compared to the other three days, with Friday potentially having the
greatest coverage as the cold front draws closer. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal. The combination of above normal
temperatures and humidity levels may allow for Heat Index values to
reach 100F across far eastern sections of the region on Thursday and
Friday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Friday...

Going to have VFR for most of the afternoon through about 06-08z
at all sites. Storm coverage is isolated this afternoon at
the taf sites, with best concentration expected southwest of
HLX, and west of MKJ.

Overnight, fog will again be an issue especially at LWB, with
LIFR vsbys, while MVFR to IFR possible elsewhere.

As usual, fog/low clouds will erode by 13-14z to VFR. Storms
again firing up after 17-18z Sat.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern will change very little through early next
week, remaining conducive for isolated to scattered afternoon &
evening storms, with higher coverage on some days more than
others. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions but with the
potential for locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing
overnight, especially for locations that received significant
rainfall during the evening prior.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...WP