048
FXUS61 KRNK 141553
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1153 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley today and the Mid Atlantic
region tonight, accompanied by isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures build into the
region through the beginning of next week. The chance of
precipitation will be limited for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM EDT Friday...

Key message:

   - Marginal risk of thunderstorms with damaging wind this
     afternoon and evening, but only isolated coverage.

Already heated up into the upper 80s around Roanoke late this
morning and should expect lower 90s. Caveat is an area of clouds
moving across the mountains, which could keep temperatures
somewhat lower. High-res guidance highlighting isolated cells
developing between noon-2pm across the Blue Ridge and then
heading southeast to the foothills/piedmont with lower coverage
over WV until late. At the moment leaned this direction. Still
coverage looks sparse but with SBCAPEs increasing to 1500 J/kg
and elevated DCAPE, any storm that can take off would be capable
of producing gusty/damaging winds, hence the marginal risk
mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge.

Previous discussion...

Isolated showers had dissipated and now satellite images showed fog
forming in the river valleys west of the Blue Ridge. The fog will
dissipate just after sunrise. The probability of thunderstorms will
return for this afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold
front. Convective allowing models had varying solutions for the
location of any storms, but the consensus in the timing, mainly
between 20Z/4PM and 04Z/midnight.

Models have both the surface and 850 front crossing through the area
by Saturday morning. Ahead of the front low level wind will be from
the west to southwest leading to downsloping. Have gone with the
warmer guidance for maximum temperatures today. Expect enough
sunshine this morning before cumulus develops in the afternoon to
warm most locations well into the 70s and 80s. NBM version 4.2 gave
the piedmont a 50 to 70 percent probability of having a high greater
than 93 degrees.

Convective Available Potential Energy will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg
range this afternoon and evening with precipitable water values
around 1.5 inches. Downdraft CAPE will support strong to damaging
wind in any of the more intense thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Mostly dry and warm through the period.

Looking to Saturday, high pressure extending from New England
southward will support northeasterly windflow across the lower Mid-
Atlantic while, at the same time, an upper level ridge builds across
the Southeast. While mostly dry conditions are expected on Saturday,
may see a stray shower or weak thunderstorm form along the Blue
Ridge with afternoon heating and upslope windflow.

Upper level ridging will become more pronounced on Sunday and Monday
for the Mid-Atlantic, while surface high pressure slides east,
allowing windflow to shift from the south. The upper level ridging,
combined with abundant sunshine each day, will allow for gradually
warming temperatures. While afternoon highs will generally hold in
the 80s for Sunday, much of the Piedmont is expected to warm into
the 90s by Monday afternoon. Those spending extended periods of time
outdoors should consider precautions against the heat, such as
having cool non-alcoholic beverages available and wearing light,
loose fitting clothing.

Upper level ridging will also suppress the development of showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon, limiting the activity to
disorganized and isolated to widely scattered coverage. Any activity
should fizzle quickly at sunset.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Warmer temperatures are expected next week with only isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level ridging will maintain control of the weather pattern for
much of the next week, supporting some of the warmest temperatures
of the year each afternoon. Most locations will warm into the upper
80s to low 90s each day. Upper level ridging will continue to
suppress most shower and thunderstorm activity, though won`t be
surprised to see isolated to widely scattered activity develop with
afternoon heating each day. Overnight patchy fog is also a
possibility for the mountain river valleys, as well as any locations
that receive rainfall the afternoon/evening prior.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Satellite images showed fog in the river valleys west of the
Blue Ridge. The IFR/MVFR fog will dissipate by 13Z/9AM.

The probability of thunderstorms will return for this afternoon
and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective
allowing models had varying solutions for the location of any
storms, but the consensus in the timing, mainly between 20Z/4PM
and 04Z/midnight.

Downdraft CAPE will support strong to damaging wind in any of
the more intense thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are also possible with any of the stronger storms.

Winds will be less than 10 knots out of the southwest to west
ahead of the front today, then northwest to north behind the
front tonight.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build back over the region for the weekend
and into early next week. Aside for some morning river fog in
the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily
VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be limited for
much of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/PM