705
FXUS61 KRNK 180654
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
254 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:  Less shower activity today.

High pressure is building inland from the western Atlantic.
Subsidence is expected to become more pronounced as temperatures
warm aloft. Drying will also take place aloft, limiting CAPE,
and precipitation chances decreasing. Can`t rule out some
isolated shra/tsra west of the Blue Ridge but overall trend is
expected to be down compared to Monday. As the airmass dries
from top down, surface dewpoints will also begin to come down,
lowering over the piedmont today, then across the mountains
Wednesday. In general expecting afternoon dewpoint temperatures to
range from the lower 60s over the piedmont to near 70 along the
Blue Ridge. Shave off another 5 degrees by Wednesday.
Temperatures will not necessarily be any cooler, with highs 4 to
8 degrees above the seasonal norm, ranging from the mid 80s to
lower 90s. With dewpoints coming down, hopefully tonight will
not feel as muggy. Lower dewpoints should also allow the air
temperature to be a few degrees lower as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high for conditions to become hot and dry as this
week progresses.

Surface high pressure situated well offshore will provide a
southeasterly flow across the Mid Atlantic throughout this forecast
period. Meanwhile, an impressive upper level ridge will maintain
control over the East Coast and suppress any chances of rain.
Temperatures should slowly trend upward during this time with
afternoon highs reaching the 80s for most locations along and west
of the Blue Ridge and the lower 90s across the Piedmont. While the
hottest air stays to the north by Thursday, it will still feel like
summer has arrived. Make sure to have plenty of fluids, sunscreen,
and ways to stay cool as it becomes hotter by the end of this
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and dry weather on Friday.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms should increase during
the weekend and into Monday.

Friday and Saturday will mark the peak of this heat wave across the
Mid Atlantic as an upper level ridge maintains control. Heat indices
could reach the mid to upper 90s along and east of a line from
Danville to Lynchburg. An upper level trough will enter the northern
Plains on Friday and approach the Great Lakes during the upcoming
weekend. The ridge should begin to weaken, which would allow for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches the Appalachian Mountains. While there is still notable
model uncertainty at this point, the cold front appears to arrive
sometime during Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

For today...areas of fog and stratus are expected along and
west of the Blue Ridge this morning with potential for IFR west
of ROA. After sunrise, any fog and stratus should dissipate.
After 14Z/10AM daytime heating will result in SCT-BKN cumulus.
Afternoon deep convection is expected mainly along and west of
the Appalachian divide. Warming and drying aloft is occurring
east of the mountains and this will inhibit deep convection east
of the mountains today.

Winds are expected to be out of the southeast...under 10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure will cover the
region. Aside from some morning river fog in the mountain
valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR.
Little or no chance for rain is expected through Friday...
then increase for the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM