613
FXUS63 KSGF 251025
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM
  today. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat
  Index values between 100 to 105.

- Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s through
  this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into
  the 100s.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday, with
  highest chances (40 to 70%) after midnight. Slight risk for
  severe weather for the majority of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Surface observations during the early morning hours showed
widespread overnight temperatures remaining in the mid 70s up to
80 and scattered mid to high level clouds. With temperatures
dropping only a few more degrees over the next few hours,
little to no relief is expected from the heat. As we progress
into the morning and afternoon hours, temperatures will begin to
climb back up as an upper level High remains over the southern
CONUS and the ridging pattern continues, bringing afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 90s. That, coupled with high humidity
will allow for heat indices between 99-105, leading to the
continuation of the Heat Advisory for the entire area until 8 PM
this evening. The NWS experimental HeatRisk index highlights
the majority of the area in a Major (3 of 4) risk for heat-
related impacts, with some localized pockets of Extreme risk (4
of 4), mainly in areas along and west of Highway 65. Make sure
to continue practicing the necessary actions to stay safe from
the heat. Drink plenty of water, stay inside in air- conditioned
areas if possible, and remember to check on those who may be
more vulnerable to heat- related illnesses.

A subtle shortwave is progged to push across the area later this
afternoon, bringing 15-20% chance of precipitation across the
area. With the lack of sufficient forcing in place, confidence
in the coverage is fairly limited, and any activity would be
more isolated in nature. The better chance (40-70%) of
thunderstorms will occur overnight tonight as a more potent
shortwave pushes across the region, dragging an associated cold
front south through the area. CAMs show isolated thunderstorms
developing out ahead of the front during the late
evening/overnight hours before the front pushes through with
a more-or-less organized line of thunderstorms. Large
uncertainties in the southern extent of the severe
threat/organized line still exists, however recent guidance has
the line reaching the CWA early Wednesday morning. HREF
guidance suggests MUCAPE between 1000-1700 J/kg, however shear
between 20-30 knots brings more uncertainty in the organization.
This leads to the conclusion that any severe thunderstorm would
be more isolated to scattered in nature, with lightning, hail
up to quarters, and damaging winds up to 60 mph as the primary
hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has extended the
Slight Risk (2 of 5) further south in the latest update,
covering the majority of the CWA to account for this potential.

Showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue pushing along the
cold front through tomorrow morning before exiting the area by
late morning. Some lingering precipitation chances (30-60%)
exist primarily southeast of I-44 during the early afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

With the passage of the cold front ushering in northerly
surface winds, more seasonable temperatures are expected on
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and
reaching the low 90s for far southwest MO and southeast KS. Heat
indices will range in the 80s and 90s both days. The ridging
pattern will continue to build back up and push east, allowing
for the excessive heat to return by the end of the week. By
Friday and Saturday, highs will return to the 90s, with heat
indices between 100-110.

Long range ensembles continue to highlight another upper-level
low pushing across the CONUS/Canadian border, bringing another
shortwave and associated cold front through the region. This
would bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation back into the area
Saturday morning, primarily for areas along/north of Highway 60.
With this still being several days out, confidence remains low.
Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast as we get
closer to this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions should persist through the majority of the TAF
period. South-southwesterly surface winds will increase through
today, with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon, primarily at
KJLN and KSGF. Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) will
return to the area overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.
Some thunderstorms could be strong to severe, however
uncertainty still exists in timing and coverage. Any stronger
thunderstorm will lower ceilings/visibilities and bring a
lightning risk. Kept this potential in a PROB30 group for now.
As confidence increases throughout the day, will update TAFs as
needed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012
KJLN: 101/2012
KVIH: 100/9999

June 28:
KSGF: 101/2012
KJLN: 102/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

June 30:
KSGF: 77/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Kenny