Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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352 FXUS63 KSGF 211936 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend ahead through the weekend with highs in the 90s. Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to 105 by late weekend into early next week. - Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Additional scattered thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) on Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A high pressure ridge has settled over the Tennessee Valley. This will keep conditions hot today, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to around 90, as low-level southerly winds advect warm air into our area. Dewpoints are in the mid-60s, supporting heat indices in the mid-90s. Tonight, lows fall into the upper 60s and low 70s. As the ridge remains over our area on Saturday, highs reach the low 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s supporting heat indices from 95-100. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Beginning Saturday afternoon, a shortwave trough moves over the Great Lakes region. This allows a weak cold front over Nebraska and Iowa to shift further south. This frontal passage brings with it a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms (20 to 50% chances) Saturday night into Sunday morning, with higher probabilities the further north you go. The main hazards from these storms will be locally heavy rainfall, owing to precipitable water vapor values of 1.5-2" over our area, and lightning. These storms are not expected to be severe due to the lack of adequate wind shear. Areas that experience showers may receive brief relief from the heat, but temperatures are still expected to reach the low 90s Sunday afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will continue early next week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s, heat indices are forecast to break 100 F, with some areas reaching values of over 105 F. The experimental NWS HeatRisk shows widespread major (Level 3 of 4) impacts with isolated areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) heat impacts. Lows in the 70s and consistent humidity will provide little nighttime relief. Be on the lookout for potential heat headlines early next week as confidence increases in the temperature forecast. Be sure to take any necessary preparations for dealing with this heat, and be sure to check in on elderly and vulnerable neighbors and family. Some effective ways to practice heat safety include using air conditioning and staying in the shade, drinking plenty of water, even if not thirsty, wearing light, loose-fitting clothing, and to take frequent breaks if working outside. Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge shifts further west over our area. This will lead to a pattern of northwesterly flow, which will make for a period of more active weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms currently sit at 35- 55% for this time period, as uncertainty remains as to the extent of the spatial coverage of these storms. High temperatures will drop back into the upper 80s during this time, coincident with the pattern change. Precipitation chances dry out again towards the end of the work week, as ensemble guidance shows an upper-level ridge building over the Great Plains and Midwest. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 Day Outlook continues its signal for above average temperatures (60- 70% chances) from the end of June up to July 4th. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period. Scattered mid and high level clouds throughout the day. Winds are southerly at 5 to 10 knots, becoming more southwesterly at 10-15 knots by 14z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 22: KSGF: 96/2016 KJLN: 98/2016 June 23: KJLN: 98/2009 June 24: KSGF: 99/1988 KJLN: 100/1954 KVIH: 99/1901 KUNO: 100/1952 June 25: KSGF: 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 21: KSGF: 76/1901 June 23: KSGF: 77/2015 June 24: KSGF: 77/1934 June 25: KSGF: 76/1952 June 26: KSGF: 76/1937 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kenny LONG TERM...Kenny AVIATION...Kenny CLIMATE...Kenny