Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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232 FXUS63 KSGF 250006 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 706 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 15-30% chances for a light shower today and tomorrow. - Much cooler temperatures will occur this week with highs in the 60s and 70s. - Rainfall chances (50-80%) continue to increase for late in the week as confidence increases on track of the next system. There is the potential for widespread and prolonged rainfall with this system by Friday and Saturday as well as breezy winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level trough digging through eastern Nebraska/Kansas and into western Missouri this afternoon. Synoptic scale lift along with weak mid-level convergence have sparked the development of a few light showers that will translate into southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this afternoon. Limited PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained across the forecast area. The lack of quality moisture will limit rain totals, however, with QPF being light. The aforementioned trough is progged to eventually cut off an upper-level low and settle over northeast Arkansas on Wednesday. Skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast overnight tonight with dry air advecting in. Light winds and residual low- level moisture may support low stratus or light fog across the eastern Ozarks, but confidence is low at this point. Wednesday appears to be the driest day of the week as surface high pressure overspreads the region. The extended reaches of the hi-res guidance suggests that dynamic lifting may trigger a few isolated storms across south-central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks; however, confidence is low, and PoPs have been limited to 15-25%. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The synoptic pattern becomes more complex by the end of the week into the weekend, primarily due to Tropical Storm Helene. Ensemble guidance has remained fairly consistent in its track over the last 24 hours, bringing it north out of the Gulf Thursday into Friday. As it does so, tropical moisture will surge northward. Its track is expected to spawn interaction with the aforementioned cutoff low over northeast Arkansas. This interaction introduces a great amount of uncertainty into the forecast regarding sensible weather (i.e. winds, precipitation, temperatures). From a synoptic standpoint, rain chances ramp up Thursday, peak Friday and Saturday, and decrease on Sunday. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails continue to highlight the potential for anomalously high rainfall, with the greatest signal across eastern Missouri. From a probabilistic standpoint, the NBM 72-hr QPF 25th to 75th percentile differences are as high as 6.5 inches in our area, indicating a very high spread in solutions of rainfall from this system. So, we will stray away from specific rainfall totals for the time being and continue to refine the probabilistic information as confidence increases. Winds will also be breezy on Friday and Saturday with the strong pressure gradients introduced by this system. NBM mean wind gusts range from 20-25 mph, though these may end up being too light due to a low bias in the model. There is high confidence in temperatures remaining near to below average through midweek, with small interquartile ranges. Spreads increase Friday into the weekend with the arrival of the tropical system, though seasonable to cool temperatures appear likely. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Light showers will continue to impact the KBBG area for the next couple of hours, but with no reductions in flight conditions. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions at the TAF sites. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Titus