529
FXUS63 KSGF 212313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend ahead through the weekend with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to
  105 by late weekend into early next week.

- Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

- Additional scattered thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) on
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A high pressure ridge has settled over the Tennessee Valley.
This will keep conditions hot today, with temperatures reaching
the upper 80s to around 90, as low-level southerly winds advect
warm air into our area. Dewpoints are in the mid-60s, supporting
heat indices in the mid-90s. Tonight, lows fall into the upper
60s and low 70s. As the ridge remains over our area on Saturday,
highs reach the low 90s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s
supporting heat indices from 95-100.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Beginning Saturday afternoon, a shortwave trough moves over the
Great Lakes region. This allows a weak cold front over Nebraska and
Iowa to shift further south. This frontal passage brings with it a
chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms (20 to 50% chances)
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with higher probabilities the
further north you go. The main hazards from these storms will be
locally heavy rainfall, owing to precipitable water vapor values of
1.5-2" over our area, and lightning. These storms are not expected
to be severe due to the lack of adequate wind shear. Areas that
experience showers may receive brief relief from the heat, but
temperatures are still expected to reach the low 90s Sunday
afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions will continue early next week. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper
90s. With dewpoints in the low 70s, heat indices are forecast to
break 100 F, with some areas reaching values of over 105 F. The
experimental NWS HeatRisk shows widespread major (Level 3 of 4)
impacts with isolated areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) heat impacts.
Lows in the 70s and consistent humidity will provide little
nighttime relief. Be on the lookout for potential heat headlines
early next week as confidence increases in the temperature forecast.
Be sure to take any necessary preparations for dealing with this
heat, and be sure to check in on elderly and vulnerable neighbors
and family. Some effective ways to practice heat safety include
using air conditioning and staying in the shade, drinking plenty of
water, even if not thirsty, wearing light, loose-fitting clothing,
and to take frequent breaks if working outside.

Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as a ridge shifts
further west over our area. This will lead to a pattern of
northwesterly flow, which will make for a period of more active
weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms currently sit at 35-
55% for this time period, as uncertainty remains as to the extent of
the spatial coverage of these storms. High temperatures will drop
back into the upper 80s during this time, coincident with the
pattern change.

Precipitation chances dry out again towards the end of the work
week, as ensemble guidance shows an upper-level ridge building over
the Great Plains and Midwest. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14
Day Outlook continues its signal for above average temperatures (60-
70% chances) from the end of June up to July 4th.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the 00z TAFS, the main storm track will remain north of the
area with upper level ridging in place across the region.
Cumulus should dissipate this evening with southerly winds
diminishing. Gusty winds are expected to develop by mid morning
across the area as an upper level shortwave passes to the north
of the area. Some gusts up to 25 kts will be possible through
the afternoon.  VFR conditions are expected through the period.



&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KJLN: 98/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 21:
KSGF: 76/1901

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Kenny