585
FXUS63 KSGF 191916
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (15 to 30%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms
  this afternoon.

- Signal for above normal temperatures to continue through the
  rest of June.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (15 to 35%) will be possible
  across portions of the area at times late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently, an upper-level ridge is located across the eastern U.S.
while an upper level trough is located over the Western U.S.
Satellite imagery shows a stratus cloud deck over SW MO that has
almost completely dissipated as a result of solar heating, while a
cumulus field develops over S MO. Convection associated with a cold
front stretching across Kansas and NE Missouri is passing to our
north, and will not affect our area. Temperatures sit in the low to
mid-80s, with southerly winds of 5-10 mph.

The dissipation of the mid-level stratus clouds will allow high
temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s today, with
heat indices in the low to mid 90s. Throughout the afternoon, there
is a 15-30% chance of isolated pop-up thunderstorms, with the
highest chances in our SE counties, where the cumulus field is
currently most developed. Any storms that do form will be short-
lived, and none will be severe due to the relatively weak deep-layer
shear. Lows tonight will range from the mid-60s to around 70
degrees.

By Thursday morning, the upper-level ridge will build back west over
our area. Precipitation chances dry up in association with this
ridge, and hot and dry conditions will be expected. Highs on Thursday
climb into the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat indices in the low
to mid-90s. Lows Thursday night again fall into the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The upper-level ridge is here to stay for the next few days, staying
over our region for Friday and Saturday. Beginning Friday night
however, an upper-level trough begins to develop over the NW U.S.
Ensemble guidance shows that this trough will push east,
flattening out the ridge through Saturday into Sunday. This may
allow some scattered thundershowers (10-30% chances) into our
northern counties as a cold front pushes south, although the
southern extent of these storms remains in question.

Early next week, an upper-level ridge of high pressure will build
over the Great Plains to our west. Northwest flow from this upper-
level pattern will lead to a pattern of more active weather next
week, along with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The Climate Prediction Center`s temperature outlook through July 2nd
signals a 60-70% chance for above average temperatures, so we likely
won`t be getting reprieve from the heat any time soon. High
temperatures will continue to be in the 90s, ranging from low 90s on
Friday to the mid 90s after Saturday. Heat indices will approach 100
early next week, so remember to practice heat safety, such as
staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks if working outside.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A
stratus cloud deck in SE MO is beginning to dissipate in
conjunction with solar heating. Additionally, a cumulus field is
beginning to develop in S MO. Like the prior days this week,
there is a 15-30% chance of isolated pop-up showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, though probabilities were too low
to include in the TAFs, and most storms, if they develop, should
form largely east of the TAF sites. Winds will slowly shift
from southerly to southeasterly through the afternoon,
decreasing from 10 knots to 5 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 21:
KVIH: 96/1952

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Kenny
CLIMATE...Kenny