814
FXUS63 KSGF 160616
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
116 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (20-60%) today through Monday east of Highway
  65. Most locations will see less than half an inch of
  additional rainfall, with localized pockets up to 1 inch.

- A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal
  temperatures to the region by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep
15 2024

A mid-level disturbance across the Arkansas Delta has aided in
precipitation development across the eastern Ozarks today. This
activity will shift a touch farther west throughout the
afternoon, but expectations remain for much if not all of the
rain to stay east of Highway 65. Instability has been meager
(500-1000 J/kg), so lightning chances are low.

With little change to the overall synoptic pattern, low-end
PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained through Monday, again for
locations east of Highway 65. Additional forecast rainfall
totals from this afternoon through Monday are generally less
than half an inch, with the 12Z HREF LPMM indicating localized
pockets near an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT
Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper-level ridging building over the Missouri Ozarks will allow
for mostly dry weather through the work week. A few ensemble
solutions do develop light precipitation across extreme eastern
Kansas and western Missouri on Thursday and Friday with some
weak shortwave energy transiting the eastern edge of the upper-
level trough, though confidence in this solution actually
manifesting is low at this point, and PoPs are less than 20%.

LREF ensembles depict the omega block breaking down by the
weekend. This pattern shift may open the door for greater rain
chances west of Springfield, where many locations have received
little precipitation in the last several weeks.

Temperatures will gradually increase above the climatological
normal throughout the week as the aforementioned ridge builds
and 850 mb temperatures warm. NBM percentile data indicate a 3-4
degree interquartile range each day, indicating fairly high
confidence in the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

East to southeasterly winds will continue through the TAF
period. Winds will weaken and be light this evening through
tonight. Winds could potentially gust between 15-20 kts on
Monday afternoon, though confidence is low in notable impacts
from these gusts at this time; thus, left out of the TAFs for
now.

There is an area of light rain showers across portions of
south central Missouri, which are spreading east underneath a
low stratus deck. Obs indicate IFR ceilings amidst these
conditions, so the trend of ceilings decreasing from east to
west should be expected to continue. Climatology indicates BBG
can be expected to remain IFR at least until 14Z, and MVFR
through Monday afternoon.

Showers should continue to weaken as they move west, though a
prob30 has been added to the BBG TAF from 15-18Z. Rain is
expected to remain south of SGF and east of JLN, with sub-30%
PoPs through Monday at this time. An isolated rumble of
thunder Monday afternoon is not out of the question either,
especially in the southernmost extent of Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Camden