181
FXUS63 KSGF 141853
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Low-end thunderstorm chances today and Saturday (15-30%).

-  Heat and humidity will continue through much of next week.

-  Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday
   and onward (15-30%) thanks to the hot and humid air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper air analysis continue to show main upper jet and storm
track positioned over the northern quarter of the CONUS with a
trough over the Great Lakes region, and upper ridge building
into the plains and mid Mississippi valley and an upper level
shortwave undercutting the ridge over the four corners region. A
surface front has pushed south into far southern Missouri into
southeast Kansas. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the
low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s and surface
based CAPES in the 3500-4500 j/kg range. A cumulus field has
devveloped in this area over the past couple of hours.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: Some of the convective
allowing models(CAMS) are developing some isolated / widely
scattered thunderstorms across mainly our southwest CWA this
afternoon and evening. This would mainly be along/ahead of the
cold front which only covers a handful of counties in our
southwest CWA. Most areas will remain dry. This area will also
have heat index values this afternoon and early evening in the
upper 90s to around 103.

Additional convection is expected to develop in the central and
high plains ahead of that upper shortwave currently in the 4
corners region, eventually forming a thunderstorm complex and
shifting east. This activity may approach our northwest CWA
towards morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s in the east
to the low 70s in the west.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday: Most of the activity with the thunderstorm complex
will lift northeast across northern Missouri, but the southern
edge of this activity may affect our central MO counties.
Outflow from this complex may aid in developing scattered
afternoon and evening convection over the area (15-25%). Storms
that develop are not expected to become severe. Highs should
climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values
from the mid 90s to around 103.

Sunday through Thursday: Upper level ridge axis will be to our
east with the main storm track expected to our northwest along
with a frontal boundary well to the north and west of the area.
Generally dry with warm and humid conditions are expected to
continue over the area. We can`t rule out some isolated
convection in the afternoon/evening on a daily basis due to
instabililty over the area. Highs will generally be in the upper
80s to mid 90s each day with heat index values from the low 90s
to around 100.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds of
5-10 knots will shift from northerly to south-southeasterly
through the TAF period in conjunction with a frontal passage.
There is a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms for each TAF
site from 19z-01z, though confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time. Any storms which do develop will lower
ceiling heights and visibilities, but will be isolated, small,
and short-lived.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg