Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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192 FXUS63 KSGF 161128 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 628 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - AM rain chances between 30-70% along and east of the Highway 65 corridor, with highest chances and accumulations (as much as an additional 0.5") furthest south. Chances decrease gradually through the day Monday, but remain above 30% through nightfall. A few rumbles of thunder could be possible in the east. - West of Highway 65, Monday`s rain chances are much lower (20-30%), but a sprinkle or two is not out of the question. Chances decrease with westward extent. - A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal temperatures to the region by mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A broad, persistent high pressure circulation remains centered over the northeast CONUS, while a much weaker mid-level low pressure sits over northern Louisiana. The flow from these two circulations converges into a southeasterly low-level jet streak of 30-40 kts that is riding the eastern edge of an inverted shortwave, pushing from western Tennessee to the northwest through the Missouri Bootheel. This jet streak is advecting additional moisture into the eastern fringes of our area, with the RAP progging PWATs of 1.6-2" upstream. Weak isentropic ascent with a small boost from mid-level vorticity advection is providing just enough lift to realize this moisture, with showers pushing from southeast to northwest along the axis of the low-level jet streak. These showers have been persistent over south-central Missouri since Sunday, and are expected to continue through the day on Monday. PoPs will remain between 40-60% in the southeastern Ozarks through the morning commute, with heaviest rainfalls resulting in an additional accumulation up to a half inch in far south-central Missouri (Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Ozark counties) through the end of the day Monday. Along and east of the Highway 65 corridor remains the focus area of highest rain chances, though Monday`s afternoon PoPs further west have been increased to 20-30%, especially from Highway 65 to the KS/MO border. The small bump in these PoPs was driven by evening HREF and NBM guidance indicating convective precip of a trace or more extending just west of Highway 65, though this would primarily remain confined to areas south of I-44, and bring minimal if any accumulations. Nonetheless, the precip footprint expansion trend supported this small bump in PoPs. With the showers moving from east to west, precipitation chances in the east will decrease throughout the day Monday as the driving low pressure circulation fizzles out and the jet streak becomes unsupported, and the last showers will dissipate in the evening. Instability is limited, with the highest CAPE values of the day unlikely to break 1000 J/kg. Even so, a few rumbles of thunder are possible out east, though widespread thunder is not expected. Because of clouds overspreading the area in conjunction with the rain, highs temperatures will have a little less spatial variability this afternoon, ranging from mid-80s in the west to mid-70s in south-central Missouri. Winds remain generally easterly and between 5-10 mph, though a brief gust up to 20 mph in the morning hours isn`t out of the question. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 After the dissipation of the mid-level low on Monday, an Atlantic low pushing westward into the Carolina coast will bump the steering high north and away from the Midwest. This makes room for a ridge to begin building over Texas, which will creep northward through the work week. Confidence is extremely high in unusually warm late-September temperatures, with less than a 5 degree difference in max temperature soluions between NBM members every day through Friday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid-80s in the eastern Ozarks and near 90 into the Osage Plains, and from here temps will continually increase all week. By Friday, highs will be in the mid-90s in the western CWA and in the mid- to upper 80s further east. For context, normal highs are around 80 degrees this time of year. After Monday`s rain clears out, rain chances are minimal to nonexistent (<15%) until Friday. This is when global models indicate the next shortwave may push into the Plains, which is the next chance for some drought-relieving precipitation out west. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 East to southeasterly winds of 5-10 kts to continue through the TAF period, with some brief gusts up to 15-20 kts possible as showers move through the area. Light rain showers are currently moving through south-central Missouri from southeast to west-northwest, and these showers will continue to move west through the morning and early afternoon hours. Accompanying these showers is a low stratus deck, and ceilings across the Ozarks range from VFR to LIFR with the main stratus deck around 2000-2500ft and ceilings as low as 400-600ft in higher terrain (specifically around BBG). Ceilings will remain primarily MVFR until late this afternoon, with clouds lifting from west to east. As far as rain impacts go, SGF will likely see light rain showers between the late morning and early afternoon hours, though the exact timing is still up in the air a bit and may need further refinement in an amendment sometime this morning. Showers are unlikely to be impactful or visibility-reducing based on current observations associated with the precip. Confidence is higher that BBG will see a longer period of rain starting late morning, which will prevent conditions from improving to MVFR, and later to VFR, until later than the majority of the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures at Springfield: September 20: 74/2018Current Forecast: 68 September 21: 73/1931 Current Forecast: 68 September 22: 70/2017 Current Forecast: 66 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden