Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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108 FXUS63 KSGF 211055 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend ahead through the weekend with highs in the 90s. Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to 105 by late weekend into early next week. - Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Additional scattered thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) on Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today-Tonight: Height rises across the area today as high pressure settles further into the region. This will keep the area dry once again today, with highs pushing into the upper 80s to around 90. Meanwhile, dewpoints will remain in the middle 60s, keeping heat index values in the lower to middle 90s. Expect a mix of sun and clouds through much of today. For tonight, lows fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Saturday-Sunday: Heading into the weekend, temperatures will continue to be on an upward trend as 850mb temperatures reach to 20 to 22C, supporting surface high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. Furthermore, dewpoints climb into the lower 70s by Sunday. This supports heat index values into the upper 90s to around 103 on Sunday afternoon. In general, much of the weekend remains dry across the area outside of scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 50%) Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is associated with a quick moving shortwave and associated weak frontal passage. The highest chances remain focused across portions of central Missouri. No severe weather or widespread flooding are in the forecast, though lightning and heavy downpours can be expected. Localized heavy rainfall and efficient rates will be will be characterized by PWATs around 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Monday-Thursday: By early next week, hot temperatures and humidity continue to build across the area. Experimental NWS HeatRisk highlights widespread Major (level 3 of 4) heat impacts across the area Sunday through Tuesday. Additionally, there is even pockets of Extreme (level 4 of 4) on Monday and Tuesday. This is the result of high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s with widespread heat index values ranging from 100 to 105. Furthermore, overnight minimal overnight relief is expected with lows in the 70s and persistent humidity. Confidence continues to increase on the potential for heat headlines into early next week. Vulnerable populations should take proper precautions ahead of the Summer`s first heatwave. Rain chances remain suppressed north and west of the ridge through Monday and part of Tuesday before a pattern change begins to shape across the Middle Mississippi Valley. The ridge shifts further west of the area, supporting northwest flow over the central CONUS into mid- week. Shower and thunderstorm chances (30 to 50%) increase Tuesday night into Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be pulse-like in nature, featuring heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds. The extent of coverage remains uncertain at this time, with some locations potentially remaining dry. With the pattern change, the hot temperatures and humidity back off across the area. This will keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances back off through the later part of the forecast period into next weekend as ensemble guidance hint at return of an upper-level ridge over the area. The CPC 8 to 14 Day Outlook support this trend with above normal temperatures likely (60 to 70% chance) through the end of June into early July. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions ahead through the TAF period. Scattered mid to high level clouds through the period, with light south winds at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 21: KVIH: 96/1952 June 22: KSGF: 96/2016 KJLN: 98/2016 June 23: KJLN: 98/2009 June 24: KSGF: 99/1988 KJLN: 100/1954 KVIH: 99/1901 KUNO: 100/1952 June 25: KSGF: 99/2012 KJLN: 101/2012 KVIH: 100/9999 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 23: KSGF: 77/2015 June 24: KSGF: 77/1934 June 25: KSGF: 76/1952 June 26: KSGF: 76/1937 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez CLIMATE...Kenny