Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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501 FXUS64 KSHV 040932 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Rain cooled air yet again with most of the area in the mid to upper 60s. The coolest reading is 64 in Minden and slightly drier overnight down in Lufkin and surrounding areas warmer with low to mid 70s. Our winds are S/SE on the surface and due S on the VAD up to over 8kft. Then SW around the freezing level with that persistent NW flow aloft. Our next impulse is closing in on McCurtain County in SE OK right now. Another potent push with a widening line of thunderstorms that will push across our I-30 corridor this early morning. The expectation then is for heating to bolster the activity once again later this morning, and progress on down our I-49 corridor, not clearing our Parishes until late this afternoon, at least on the HRRR. Which we recall ended up doing a fantastic prognostication 24 hrs ago on lastnight`s activity. In light of the inches of rainfall soaking our soils, we have hoisted a flood watch for today, tonight and tomorrow. Now not every where will see the same amounts or heavy rains for all, but we know the number of flash flood warnings has doubled last night from Sunday nights effort. So please keep abreast when these thunderstorm complexes approach as "Some ,maybe Heavy" will likely apply. The models show a deeper H500 push overnight once again and we may be dealing with much more thunderstorm activity this time tomorrow morning. Likewise, this activity will cool pool southeastward with time. The last bout should come to an end during Wednesday afternoon from NW to SE over our Four- State area. Little change on temps expected with the deep southerly flow at least in this short term. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Behind this H500 push early Wednesday, weak high pressure will settle across the plains and begin to limit the fetch of the breeding grounds for these complexes of thunderstorms. So we are still expecting less coverage and intensity in the coming days. This will mean more June sunshine and slightly warmer temps in the lower 90s each afternoon through the weekend. Our morning lows will tack on a few degrees with less of these rain cooled nights. The stronger area of surface high pressure expected this weekend will still be arriving and shifting our winds to NE for Friday and night, and then veering to SE again early on Saturday. However, the frontal boundary on arrival may not bring as much additional rainfall as the nocturnal potential over the boundary each night this weekend as the low level jet keeps the moisture flow off the Gulf into the weekend. The deep parent low over the Ohio valley will just sit and spin in place into mid month, the way it looks right now. June is getting an early jump on the pace of rain we have seen since January. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 For the 04/06Z TAF period, still dealing with convection across our northern and eastern airspace early this morning but coverage and intensity has greatly diminished. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of this morning with low stratus returning as we approach daybreak and thereafter with MVFR/IFR cigs likely through the first half of the period before improving back to VFR toward midday/early afternoon. Additional convection during the day Tuesday remains difficult to pin down so have only inserted VCTS starting around midday through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail between 5-15 kts with higher gusts invof of any convection. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 74 89 75 / 40 20 50 20 MLU 88 72 87 72 / 60 10 60 30 DEQ 87 69 87 68 / 50 40 30 10 TXK 88 72 88 71 / 40 30 40 10 ELD 86 70 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 TYR 91 73 89 73 / 30 20 30 10 GGG 90 74 89 72 / 30 20 40 20 LFK 91 75 91 73 / 20 10 40 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19