358
FXUS64 KSHV 141958
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Strong subsidence persists across the region as surface and
upper-level ridging build overhead. This has allowed temperatures
to warm well into the 90s today. Radiational cooling should result
in overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees in most
locations. The upper-level ridge will translate east of the area
tonight, while a shortwave trough over of Colorado begins to
eject northeast into the Central Plains. Southerly surface winds
should also return overnight as the surface ridge moves off to the
east and surface lee troughing becomes more dominant. There may be
just enough southerly flow and moisture increase to support some
patchy fog during the early morning hours of Saturday,
particularly in the terrain of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest
Arkansas and around the lakes of Deep East Texas.

Another day with abundant sunshine is expected for Saturday. With
southerly winds prevailing, warm air advection will also return,
which should enhance the warming trend slightly. Saturday should
be the hottest day during the next week. I trended slightly above
guidance given the return of south winds. The entire forecast area
should warm into the mid to upper 90s. Some portions of Louisiana
and Southern Arkansas may be very close to triple digits. Peak
heat index values may approach Heat Advisory criteria in a few
isolated locations. Otherwise, no precip is expected for the
short-term period.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The long-term period will be characterized by a typical summer
pattern consisting of near daily chances for mainly diurnally-
driven, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland and northward. As
southerly winds increase on Sunday, more warm and moist air should
be advected into the region. A plume of tropical moisture is
expected to surge inland, which could provide isolated diurnally-
driven sea breeze convection Sunday afternoon south of a line from
Lufkin to Jena. Monday should be the day with the highest and
most widespread rain chances as the tropical moisture plumes
streams directly overhead along with increase onshore winds.

A potential tropical cyclone is progged to move northwest from the
Bay of Campeche and into Northern Mexico during the latter half of
the week. Southeasterly mid-level winds north of the cyclone
should keep some rain chances in the forecast, even during the
overnight hours after Tuesday. However, surface winds are expected
to become more easterly, especially Wednesday through Friday,
greatly limiting the northward extent of Gulf moisture. Thus, rain
chances will become increasingly confined to our southernmost
zones after Tuesday.

The increased rain chances and associated cloud cover should daytime
high temperatures should be cooled back to near climatology
Sunday through Wednesday, which generally ranges from the upper
80s to lower 90s. However, as rain chances become diminish around
midweek another slow warming trend can be expected with
increasingly hot and humid conditions likely.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Some
cumulus may be present in the afternoon around 5000 feet and will
dissipate after sunset. Some cumulus may move across east Texas
terminals out of the south around daybreak tomorrow morning.
Diurnally driven few-scattered cumulus is expected to develop
across most terminals near the end of the TAF period. Winds will
be light and variable, 5 kts or less, throughout the period.

BF/Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  68  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  71  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  71  94  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23