Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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567 FXUS64 KSHV 221834 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 134 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Welcome to the Fall season, and since 7:44 am with the equinox, but we are still on a summer diurnal course with top of the hour readings in the mid to upper 80s. Our winds are stirring S/SW and will likely back again in the mid afternoon to more S/SE. Just another partly cloudy sky of fair weather cumulus. No changes needed to highs with a range of low to mid 90s on course as winds stir better over the next few hours. Speaking of stirring winds, we have been tasked (with many other offices) to transition to 4 upper air flights starting at midnight tomorrow night in prep for a challenging tropic scenario. Many sites in our region will be adding these extra flight times 06/18Z through Thursday afternoon. NHC disturbance #2 in the NW Caribbean Sea has only a 10% chance over the next 48hrs. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 By Tuesday night, a much deeper trough and cold front will begin moving through the Plains, working into the region by Wednesday morning. Here, the low looks to become cut off and stall somewhere overhead. This will do two things: keep cooler air filtering into the region, and allow for narrower bands of heavier precipitation to form along deeper moisture flow from the Gulf. In turn, below average temperatures are possible into the weekend, aided by the increased cloud cover and rain. Additionally, a few locations could see localized 1-2 inches of rainfall with these heavier bands. Unfortunately, these amounts will be isolated, and many locations won`t see much QPF over the next seven days. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the 22/18Z TAF period, a healthy cu field has developed early this afternoon, averaging between 3.5-6Kft with some occasional low VFR cigs due to this cumulus layer. Most of this cloud cover should diminish after sunset this evening with some upstream mid and high level clouds gradually expanding eastward into our local airspace. Convection should remain north of our terminals along a slowly advancing cold front currently located from central and SW Oklahoma back into the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, cannot rule out some patchy fog once again at a few sites closer to daybreak Monday with MVFR vsby restrictions possible, mainly at LFK/MLU. Light S/SW winds will decrease to less than 5 kts overnight and increase again on Monday from W/SW ahead of the approaching cold front. Low VFR cigs will be possible again late in the period as cu/stratocu increases with heating by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 92 72 89 / 0 10 10 20 MLU 71 93 72 91 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 70 85 62 84 / 20 60 10 10 TXK 73 89 68 86 / 0 30 20 10 ELD 70 91 69 87 / 0 10 20 20 TYR 74 89 69 88 / 10 30 10 20 GGG 72 90 69 88 / 0 20 10 20 LFK 71 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...19