Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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458 FXUS64 KSHV 222016 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 316 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Another summer like day going, but perhaps the last for a while anyway. Air temps are in the upper 80s and lower 90s with SW-SE winds and dew points range mostly in the 60s, but with a few low 70s too. The cool front on approach will shallow without much upper level support with the ridge still hanging on over the Gulf coast. So we are starting to see a weak SW flow aloft set up to assist the front, but this boundary will just wash out in house. Fair skies tonight with more muggy low 70s areawide. The precip now in central OK will edge our way with a slight chance arriving near our I-30 corridor by daybreak. Most of the QPF signal favors keeping north of I-20 this go around, but rain will become a little more likely for our I-30 during Monday. Highs to start the work week will ease back mainly as the clouds increase overhead. The cold front will just not have enough of a push with modifying high pressure content to settle over the southern plains and pinch off of the main core that will head into the OH River Valley. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The overall westerlies flow pattern is being blocked off just off the Atlantic seaboard with a Northeaster of sorts. However, this will allow one more surface air mass to drop down out of Canada and head our way during midweek and we will end up with a nice deep trough that will close off and hang around for a good while. The clouds and the rain will be best for our area during this timeframe, along with much cooler temps than here lately. The northerly winds filter in early this week, but take some time to ramp up, which will eventually continue to spin the upper low without deepening or filling, just keeping in place perfect for us under the lower heights. And then the tropic cyclone comes into play, and based on pressures in the models could be substantial Cat 2 or maybe low end 3. The NHC continues with a rapid spin up, which fits with the backdoor effect on the easterly wave for the Gulf this time of year. So stay tuned for more. What remains consistent is that the cyclone shears apart well inland, but ends up going Fujiwara aloft with our upper low, and even appears to absorb the cyclones upper core. This will foster our lower heights aloft situation for an extra day or so. The WPC QPF starts our mostly north of I-20 on days 1-3 and changes little with most of the mid to late week QPF also north of I-20. However, this will help our drought conditions greatly where is is needed the most. Looking toward October, all this low pressure aloft in the middle MS River valley will allow for a third large cool air mass to drop down by the end of the month and help to foster more below average temps in our area for an extended period. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the 22/18Z TAF period, a healthy cu field has developed early this afternoon, averaging between 3.5-6Kft with some occasional low VFR cigs due to this cumulus layer. Most of this cloud cover should diminish after sunset this evening with some upstream mid and high level clouds gradually expanding eastward into our local airspace. Convection should remain north of our terminals along a slowly advancing cold front currently located from central and SW Oklahoma back into the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, cannot rule out some patchy fog once again at a few sites closer to daybreak Monday with MVFR vsby restrictions possible, mainly at LFK/MLU. Light S/SW winds will decrease to less than 5 kts overnight and increase again on Monday from W/SW ahead of the approaching cold front. Low VFR cigs will be possible again late in the period as cu/stratocu increases with heating by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 91 72 88 / 0 10 20 30 MLU 70 93 72 89 / 0 0 10 30 DEQ 70 84 62 85 / 20 60 30 20 TXK 72 89 68 86 / 0 40 30 20 ELD 70 91 69 86 / 0 20 30 30 TYR 73 89 68 89 / 0 20 20 30 GGG 72 90 69 87 / 0 20 30 30 LFK 72 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19