Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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574 FXUS64 KSHV 132232 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 532 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures will continue to be the rule through the short-term period as upper-level ridging moves eastward across the Southern Plains and eventually directly over the ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday. Even though the surface ridge will be weakening, there will still be plenty of subsidence to keep very light winds and mostly clear skies in place. This should also enhance the radiational cooling tonight allowing most places to cool into the 60s. Most of the model guidance remains several degrees too warm for overnight lows. We should rebound nicely again tomorrow with temperatures warming well into the 90s. The models have also trended a couple of degrees too cool for daytime highs, especially in the urban areas. Overall, persistence is the general word to characterize the short-term period. CN && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to move east of the area on Saturday. As a shortwave trough ejects from Colorado into the Central Plains, a surface lee trough should become better established bringing southerly surface winds back to the forecast area. As a result, warm and moist air advection should resume from the Gulf of Mexico helping to enhance the warming trend. This should be enough to push daytime high temperatures into the upper 90s, possibly right to the century mark, across much of Louisiana Saturday and Sunday. Moisture levels will still be somewhat meager on Saturday, and winds speeds should increase to between 5 and 10 kts in most areas on Sunday. This should be just enough to keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, but I can`t rule out peak heat index values climbing very near 105 degrees F in a few isolated locations this weekend. As the flow aloft transitions south or southwesterly on Sunday, this should also begin to bring a plume of tropical moisture northward. The onshore flow should result in at least a chance for diurnally-driven sea breeze convection south of a line from Lufkin, to Natchitoches, to Jena beginning Sunday afternoon. This pattern should repeat itself daily through at least the middle of next week. The highest and most widespread rain chances should be Monday afternoon when southerly flow is at its strongest. By Tuesday and Wednesday, surface winds become more easterly in response to a potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will cut off a large portion of the Gulf moisture to our south. There will still be enough of a sea breeze present for rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but the best chances for any showers or thunderstorms will become increasingly confined to our southernmost zones. Despite the uncertainty in rainfall amounts and thunderstorm coverage, the increased moisture and associated cloud cover should provide some relief from the heat as daytime high temperatures should be limited to the lower 90s Monday through Wednesday. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 65 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 67 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 63 94 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 69 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 66 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 68 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...44