Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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491 FXUS64 KSHV 050309 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1009 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package at this time. Increased PoPs and added severe wording to the wx grids to account for the most recent approximate consensus of short range high resolution models. As of this writing, impacts from the MCS developing in central Oklahoma look to begin in McCurtain county between 08Z and 09Z, tracking southeast toward the Three-State Point by 12Z and further into the ArkLaTex as the morning continues. No Severe products are in effect for the ArkLaTex at this time, but Watch issuance within the next several hours is likely, based on the evolution of the storms in Oklahoma. Damaging winds will the primary threat, with large hail and a spinup tornado or two also within the realm of possibility. In addition to the convective hazards, flash flooding will be a chief concern, as the region remains highly saturated and runoff is causing area waterways to continue to rise further, ahead of the heavy rainfall with the overnight and early morning storms. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Unfortunately, another active short-term is on the horizon, as another thunderstorm complex looks to move into the region overnight, and linger through tomorrow afternoon. This MCS will very much resemble what we`ve been experiencing the last two days, with it moving into the area from the NW, exiting to the SE. A slight risk for severe weather remains in place across the region, as this MCS will be capable of producing damaging winds. Elsewhere, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall remains in effect for the overnight hours, as additional heavy rainfall is anticipated into tomorrow afternoon. Given the saturated soils, the flood watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon, as it won`t take much for additional flash flooding to occur. 1-3 inches of additional rainfall are possible, with locally heavier amounts certainly possible given these heavier rainfall rates. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 With all that bad news out of the way, there is a glimmer of hope of dry weather in the long-term. Upper-level ridging will nudge north into the day on Thursday, shifting the NW flow back to the north as well. This will result in limited rain chances into the day on Saturday, before this ridge begins to slightly retreat into Sunday. So while rain chances during this timeframe will be limited, high temperatures will begin to skyrocket, with highs in the mid-90s anticipated by Thursday. Come Monday, a trough and cold front will begin to work through the Midwest, with the front extending all the way back into W. Texas. This front will begin to increase rain chances once again across the region, with thunderstorm chances returning as well. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will continue this evening, as elevated cigs persist in wake of widespread convection that has shifted ESE into Ern MS/SE LA. MVFR cigs should redevelop after 06Z Wednesday over E TX, possibly spreading NNE into Wrn LA/extreme SW AR by/after 08Z, ahead of another thunderstorm complex that will develop this evening over Cntrl/Srn OK, and quickly shift SE into the region after 06Z. This convection should affect the TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV terminals between 08-11Z, and the remaining terminals by/shortly before 12Z, and could result in gusty winds in excess of 30kts, MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys, and extreme turbulence. Cigs should return to VFR within a few hours following the arrival of the convection, with mainly AC/cirrus cigs expected in its wake. Additional scattered convection may redevelop during the afternoon over the area, where VCSH was added to the area terminals. However, these should eventually diminish by late afternoon/evening, with VFR conditions persisting Wednesday night. SSE winds 6-10kts tonight will become VRB 10kts with the arrival of the convection late. Winds should eventually become WSW 5-8kts by late morning/during the afternoon Wednesday. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 89 72 94 / 50 60 20 10 MLU 73 87 70 92 / 20 70 30 10 DEQ 68 87 63 92 / 80 30 0 0 TXK 71 88 68 94 / 70 50 10 0 ELD 69 86 67 93 / 50 50 10 0 TYR 73 89 70 93 / 30 30 10 0 GGG 72 88 70 93 / 40 50 10 0 LFK 75 90 72 93 / 10 50 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...15