742
FXUS64 KSHV 111554
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1054 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

As of 10:45 AM this morning, temperatures are approaching the
upper 70s once again with mostly sunny skies and light easterly
winds. Temperature maximums will reach the lower 80s this
afternoon with dewpoints at or below 60 degrees allowing for more
pleasant outdoors conditions today. With weather and observed
trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were
not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather should remain in place for most of this short-term,
as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This will allow highs
today to remain in the low to mid-80s, and lows tonight to range
in the low to mid-60s. However, rain chances will dramatically
begin to increase by Sunday morning as the first disturbance moves
into the region. This rain will be moderate to heavy at times,
with 2-4 inches of rainfall possible through Tuesday morning.
Because of this rainfall, highs on Sunday will only get up into
the low to mid-70s into the afternoon hours.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An active long-term kicks off by Monday morning, as a shortwave
trough begins to work through the region. Along with this trough,
a weak cold front will begin moving to the SE, which will the
catalyst for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather. As
storms first fire along this front, the primary threat will be
large hail as storms remain somewhat isolated. However, as the
line continues to grow, that threat will shift into a damaging
wind threat. While the tornado threat will be secondary, there is
an enhanced area of lower level flow along the front through
Monday morning, which could result in an isolated tornado on the
north end of the slight risk. A break in the weather is expected
by the middle of the week, before the next trough begins to move
into the region by Thursday. While severe weather remains to be
seen with this one, another 1-3 inches of rainfall will be
possible along and south of I-20, which could put our week long
total at 6+ inches on some locations.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 11/12z TAFS...Expect VFR conditions to prevail through
the period with some scattered to broken mid and high clouds
streaming through. Can`t rule out some light rain at our East
Texas sites by the end of period. Winds will be light/variable
this morning and again tonight, with light ESE winds during
daytime today. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  67  77  67 /   0  20  50  80
MLU  83  65  78  64 /   0  10  20  80
DEQ  83  60  77  62 /   0  10  30  80
TXK  84  63  78  65 /   0  10  40  80
ELD  83  61  78  62 /   0  10  20  80
TYR  81  64  74  67 /  10  30  70  70
GGG  82  64  75  66 /  10  20  60  80
LFK  83  65  78  69 /   0  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20