Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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303 FXUS64 KSHV 231119 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going, with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin working SE through the Plains. This second front should push through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this low meanders as well. The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north, and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air. /44/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the 23/12z TAF update...A weak cold front extends from Terrell, TX to Hochatown, OK to Clarksville, AR this morning. In association with this cold front, showers and thunderstorms are moving along a very similar line and starting to move into our area. Models indicate that this activity should diminish before there is any significant impact to any terminals, however, I have included some VCSH to KTYR and KGGG, as some of it could get close to them. As this morning`s showers diminish, there should be some redevelopment by this afternoon that could bring some thunderstorms to more terminals. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 73 87 68 / 20 20 30 30 MLU 93 73 89 67 / 0 10 40 40 DEQ 84 62 85 60 / 60 30 10 30 TXK 89 67 86 64 / 40 30 20 30 ELD 91 68 86 64 / 10 30 30 20 TYR 90 68 88 66 / 30 20 30 20 GGG 91 69 87 65 / 30 30 30 30 LFK 92 73 89 68 / 10 20 40 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...33