818
FXUS64 KSHV 111607 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1107 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A shortwave trough drifting east across the Upper Red River
Valley has aided in the development of a thunderstorm complex
currently located just west of the DFW Metroplex. Latest high-res
guidances suggests these storms will continue eastward, but may
become more focused to the southeast, while also possibly
weakening on the northern flank as it approaches the forecast
area. Time of arrival is most likely late this afternoon or early
this evening, if the storms can persist. Given the uncertainty,
slight chance PoPs were maintained for this afternoon.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appears to be on track. No
updates are anticipated for today.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The early morning sfc analysis indicates that slightly drier sfc
air now bisects E TX in wake of the weak fropa that moved through
the region Monday morning, and now has become stationary across S
TX into S LA. The sfc theta-e analysis depicts that the drier air
considerably lags the frontal position, and resides from the Red
River Valley SE into NW and NCntrl LA, on the Srn periphery of sfc
ridging that extends farther NE into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the
morning water vapor imagery depicts a closed upper low over the
Lower TX Panhandle, which remains progged to drift SE today and
open up into a trough as it traverses NW into NCntrl TX this
afternoon. Convection near the low`s periphery remains scattered
this morning, although an uptick in convection is expected as we
move through the day especially as the low interacts with a
destabilizing air mass with increased diurnal heating and a
gradual increase in PW`s. As the leading edge of the trough
approaches ECntrl TX this afternoon, isolated to widely scattered
convection should increase, although the convection will have to
contend with the drier air that has and will continue to mix/backdoor
SW during the day into E TX. Have maintained slight chance/low
chance pops for the SW sections of E TX this afternoon, but
otherwise, near seasonal temps and lower RH`s are expected today
under the reflection of the sfc ridging in place. Any convection
that does manage to develop over the Wrn sections of E TX should
diminish early this evening with the loss of heating and the dry
air entrainment, although convection may persist overnight near
the apex of the trough as it slides SE through the Hill Country
into SE TX.

Despite the drier air that will continue to settle SW today,
elevated cigs along the upper trough axis will limit the extent of
radiational cooling tonight, with these cigs expected to diminish
from N to S Wednesday with the departure of the trough. Stronger
insolation should yield slightly hotter temps Wednesday, although
low RH`s will maintain heat indices near the ambient air temps.
Did insert slight chance pops for Srn Cherokee and Angelina
Counties Wednesday as some of the short term progs suggest that
isolated convection will remain possible. However, a deeper wedge
of drier air will build farther S in wake of the departing trough
Wednesday, setting the stage for better radiational cooling/more
comfortable overnight temps under a mostly clear sky Wednesday
night.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Much of the extended period will be dominated by upper ridging
over Nrn old MX into the Four Corners Region, that will expand E
into the Srn Plains/Ozarks Thursday, and shift E into the Mid-
South and Lower MS Valley Friday and Saturday. Thus, even hotter,
above normal temps will return to the region for late week into
the upcoming weekend, with readings climbing into the mid and
upper 90s areawide. Fortunately, sfc ridging will also linger over
the area through the period, maintaining a deep Erly flow and thus
keeping the Gulf shut off and resulting in manageable RH`s.
However, heat indices will near or exceed 100 degrees Saturday and
most certainly by Sunday, once a SErly low level flow resumes on
the backside of the upper ridge as it builds into the OH/TN
Valleys and much of the Ern Seaboard.

The medium range progs still suggest that a plume of tropical
moisture associated with a weak inverted trough or tropical wave
will begin to surge N across the S LA coast Sunday afternoon,
which would enhance the potential for scattered convection pushing
into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA. Have maintained slight to low chance
pops for these areas, although the potential for more scattered
convection seems probable over much of the area Monday. However,
model variability does increase with respect to the position of
the inverted trough aloft, as the ECMWF maintains the trough over
much of the TX Coastal Bend whereas the GFS lifts this weakness
NNE into the Ozarks and Mid MS Valley. Thus, confidence remains
low with the extent and duration of convection, although the
influx of moisture should help taper max temps back slightly as we
enter the first of the new work week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the 11/12Z TAFs, mostly VFR conditions look to persist
through the course of this forecast period, with BKN to SCT high
clouds descending to lower VFR and possibly brief MVFR during the
early morning hours. Midmorning development of a new CU field is
possible, but precipitation effects do not look likely enough to
carry at this time. Northeast winds will become more easterly
and reach sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  70  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  64  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  87  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  62  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  88  69  90  67 /  20  10  10   0
GGG  89  67  90  66 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  90  71  90  68 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26