272
FXUS64 KSHV 160551
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A quiet night is in store for the Four State Region tonight with
no changes needed to the current forecast.

Surface high pressure centered over the region earlier today is
shifting E/SE towards the Gulf this evening, with a more active
pattern developing to the west across the TX panhandle as SW flow
becomes better established aloft. Dry conditions are expected
through tonight, with cloud cover increasing and low temps
dropping into the low 60s across SE OK and SW AR and mid to upper
60s elsewhere.

Rain chances to quickly return to the forecast later Thursday
morning, with the potential for heavy rain and a few strong to
severe storms. The previous discussion highlights this in better
detail and can be referenced below:

Kovacik

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure at the sfc is centered directly across the heart of
the region this afternoon, providing for light and variable winds
and very warm temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s. With the
exception of some thin high clouds, mostly sunny skies continue to
dominate and help to propel the very warm afternoon temperatures.
As the evening and overnight progresses, look for additional cloud
cover to expand into the region from the west due to moistening W
to SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, the sfc high will shift farther east
and allow for a light S/SE flow to prevail. As a result, overnight
low temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to last night with
a range of 60s areawide.

By daybreak on Thursday, an advancing upper-level trough will be
ejecting from the Desert SW toward the TX Big Bend country with
showers and thunderstorms increasing across much of TX. Expect
this convection to rapidly expand eastward into our region by the
afternoon and especially into Thursday evening/overnight through
Friday morning along an advancing lead shortwave. Some additional
shower and thunderstorm activity will likely follow through Friday
afternoon and evening as the primary trough axis pivots overhead.
This could bring as much as 2-4 inches of total event rainfall to
areas mainly south of Interstate 20, prompting the issuance of a
Flood Watch for areas generally along and south of Jacksonville,
TX to Monroe, LA from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.
In addition, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
through this timeframe with damaging wind gusts as the primary
threat.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As the trough axis gradually shifts east of the region during the
day on Saturday, any lingering light rain should rapidly come to
an end with dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder
of the weekend into early next week. An upper-level ridge will be
expanding across much of the southern CONUS and push temperatures
even higher into the upper 80s and lower 90s from Saturday through
the remainder of the extended period early next week.

In fact, mid 90s cannot entirely be ruled out by the early to
middle part of next week with an unseasonably strong upper-level
ridge building NE from old Mexico into the South Central and SE
CONUS. As a result, rain chances will be quite slim to none with
a welcome opportunity to dry out after a fairly wet period during
the first half of May. Unfortunately, we could also be looking at
heat indices surging above 100 degrees with these temperatures
combined with the increasing humidity from southerly flow.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions should remain through 16/12z, before clouds begin
to increase into the afternoon hours. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate into the evening hours, before widespread cloud cover
and precipitation move into the region. In general, the 17/01-05z
timeframe is when conditions will really go downhill, with
widespread heavy rain and TS likely to be introduced in the 12z
TAF package.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  68  83  69 /  50  90  30  20
MLU  88  65  83  67 /  20  90  50  40
DEQ  83  63  81  61 /  20  70  50  20
TXK  86  66  83  65 /  20  80  40  20
ELD  87  64  82  64 /  10  80  50  30
TYR  83  67  83  66 /  70  70  20  10
GGG  84  66  83  66 /  70  80  20  20
LFK  84  67  85  66 /  90  80  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening for
     LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday evening for
     TXZ149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...44