534
FXUS64 KSHV 160542
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A mild evening is underway with 10 PM temperatures ranging through
the 70s as cu/altocu cloud cover expands deeper across the region.
Eventually, low stratus will also make a run at the majority of
the area with some of it already moving into portions of our far
northern counties in SW Arkansas and adjacent parts of McCurtain
County in SE OK. Some light rain showers may accompany this cloud
cover across our NE zones after midnight, but most of the region
will remain rain-free. In addition, patchy fog may also begin to
develop after midnight and especially closer to daybreak across
the SE half of the region so did have to add that to the forecast
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is on track with no additional updates needed at this
time.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms resulting from a
weak longitudinally oriented surface boundary across Mississippi
and an upper-low lingering from Francine to persist through this
evening with conditions improving after midnight. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies to prevail across the ArkLaTex with the
highest coverage across south Arkansas and northeast Louisiana.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to average in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Widely scattered daytime convection expected across northeast
Louisiana and south Arkansas on Monday as a southward moving
upper-trough forces the remnants of Francine across the northern
gulf coast. A westward retrograding upper-low across the
Appalachians will fully absorb whats left of Francine on Monday
night with conditions improving areawide thereafter. High
temperatures on Monday are forecast average to average in the low
to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An upper-level ridge to build east across the region on Tuesday
allowing for dry conditions to prevail areawide through at least
Friday. Subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for
high temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 90s with
warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Late in the workweek, the upper-ridge to become pinched between an
approaching trough across the Southern Plains and an upper-low
that will deepen across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Could see
gradually increasing rain chances from Saturday onward across
mainly the I-30 corridor. Temperatures during the weekend to
range from highs in the upper 80s to lows in the upper 60s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low level moisture in the form of MVFR and IFR ceilings will be
advecting south and west this morning from Central and Southwest
Arkansas and should have encompassed all but maybe our NE TX
terminals by sunrise. Cannot rule out the possibility of some
patchy fog as well across our terminals through 14-15z or so.
Should see slow ceiling improvement by mid to late morning, maybe
a little later at the ELD/MLU/TXK terminals. Did introduce VCSH
at all terminals with the exception of our NE TX terminals given
the forcing in place to our north and east to go along with
available moisture. Look for mostly N to NE winds today with
speeds generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  87  71 /  20   0  10   0
MLU  83  69  86  66 /  60  10  10   0
DEQ  84  66  87  65 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  84  68  88  68 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  81  65  85  64 /  50  10   0   0
TYR  88  70  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  86  69  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  88  70  89  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13