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000
FXUS64 KSHV 141135
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
635 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

AVIATION...

For the 14/12Z TAF update, an active weather situation is ongoing
as a warm front bisects our airspace in a line generally from
KTYR to KELD. VCTS/TSRA convection continues now with MVFR/IFR
cigs over most terminals, however, that activity will clear all
terminals from west to east by 14/20Z. After the convection exits
the area, MVFR cigs and winds from the east or northeast will
persist through the rest of the period. /16/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

Approaching 4am this morning, a warm front bisects the majority of
the Ark-La-Tex with northeast and southeast surface winds generally
converging along or just near the I-30 corridor. Aloft, a low-level
jet of 20-30kts remains over the warm sector. Further aloft,
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain disturbed enough to
instigate more convection through the morning hours. High-res model
guidance has long suggested this round of storms developing along
the isentropic forcing with this frontal boundary as it eventually
shifts back southeast this afternoon.

Afternoon highs will remain moderated by cloud cover and previous
rainfall into the upper 60s, with lower 70s along the frontal
boundary near our southern zones. Precipitation mostly winds down
tonight with similarly moderated low temperatures in the mid-50s
area wide. A lull in precipitation will continue tomorrow with
calmer mid-level zonal flow aloft. Northeasterly surface winds will
also persist through tomorrow as the frontal boundary clears the
Gulf Coast, maintaining below average temperatures. /16/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/

The omega blocking pattern across the Nrn CONUS should begin to
gradually break down to start the long term period, although sfc
ridging will persist from the Cntrl Plains/Midwest S into the
region. The closed low over the Great Basin remains progged to drift
E into the Rockies while opening up Thursday night, which will
reinforce a shortwave trough embedded in the dirty zonal flow E
across the Srn Plains and into the region. Associated isentropic
forcing should become enhanced as it spreads into the area, with
overrunning of the cool/shallow air mass in place expected to
contribute to areas of convection gradually increasing from W to E.
Did bump pops up to likely across E TX/SE OK/NW LA late Thursday
night, with mid and high chance pops elsewhere as it should take a
little longer to saturate the dry air mass over these areas given
the prior dry air intrusion over much of Srn AR/N LA. However, this
will eventually occur during the day Friday, where pops were
increased to likely/categorical areawide. Mid level lapse rates
still look marginal over the region, but can`t rule out isolated
embedded thunder before the convection begins to diminish from W to
E Friday night as mid and upper level dry air begins to entrain E
beneath the ejecting progressive upper trough over the Plains. This
trough will also reinforce a cold front S through the region Friday
night, reinforcing the cooler (below normal)/drier air back S for
the upcoming weekend.

Did hold on to low pops Saturday generally along/S of I-20 to
account for any lingering -SHRA near the front, before a dry
forecast returns for the remainder of the weekend. While this front
will usher very cool temps into the area, any radiational cooling
will be offset by persistent elevated cloud cover in the WSW flow
aloft, which may be more dense over SE TX/Cntrl and Srn LA S of a
pair of shortwave troughs over the Cntrl Plains and Desert SW. Thus,
did nudge min temps up a tad over these areas this weekend, although
some insolation should occur during the day allowing for a slow
modification of temps to start the new work week. Any Gulf inflow
will remain cut off through the end of the extended period and
beyond, with another progressive shortwave rounding a developing
longwave trough over the Cntrl Canadian provinces into the Cntrl
CONUS, reinforcing another weak cold front into the region Tuesday
afternoon/night. The lack of any deep moisture will preclude any
mention of pops for the latter extended, although a continued warmup
is expected ahead of the front, with the potential for some cloud
cover accompanying the front and associated trough.

15


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  54  71  52 /  80  60  10  60
MLU  68  53  70  51 /  80  50  20  40
DEQ  67  50  70  48 /  50  30   0  60
TXK  65  52  69  50 /  60  40  10  50
ELD  64  49  70  47 /  70  40  10  50
TYR  70  53  70  55 /  40  60  20  60
GGG  69  53  70  52 /  50  60  20  60
LFK  76  56  72  56 /  70  70  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

16/15/16