089
FXUS64 KSHV 110638
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
138 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

 - The current warming trend peaks today as added clouds and
   increasing wind speeds will ease temperatures back a tad.

 - A Marginal Risk for strong storms remains for Sunday through
   the overnight across the western half of the Four-State area.

 - Unsettled weather will persist for next week, but timing and
   impacts of any potential severe weather remains uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A nice end to the work week with several showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms moving over deep east TX and cenLA
yesterday afternoon, and honestly lingering longer than expected
after sundown. This was the closest look to a sea breeze in a
good while with an upper weakness over the western Gulf. This
feature has largely dissipated now with a drift inland over the
coastal bend. Convective activity is modeled to be on our fringe
of TX Counties for today. The SPC concurs having drawn their
General Risk line just to our west for the Day 1 outlook.

We can expect another nice warm day with highs in the mid 80s for
most sites. Our lows continue warming as well with 60s now a
fixture for us for this next week in moistening southerly flow.
We look to see cooler 50s return by this time next weekend with
another Canadian air mass. Until then, hopefully some needed
rainfall. However, as discussed yesterday, we will keep a gradient
of Wet to Dry across much of our Four-State area. This is due to
the clash zone of deep upper longwave trough over the
intermountain west and the building upper ridge establishing over
the eastern Gulf and Florida. So hopefully we do get to see those
cooler 50s return next weekend only after some much needed
rainfall across our LA Parishes as well.

Sunday will see more cloudiness and finally the storms edging in
from the west. The SPC day 2 continues a Marginal Risk for much of
our W/NW with a General Risk line riding NE from Natchitoches up
to near Monroe. Our I-30 corridor highs will be cooler in the 70s
under the clouds and rain areas with more 80s elsewhere. Then the
new work week will see a loss of ground as convection is coming
in a bit lighter and even shunted back westward a tad. We may have
to wait for that air mass bringing back the cooler air next
weekend to give us the needed lift and SW flow aloft for more
widespread rainfall across all of our Four-State area. However,
the uncertainty of what unfolds is still foretold by solo day 3
ERO from the WPC, that coincides with the better coverage of
convection for Sunday into Monday. Beyond that event, we may end
up having to hurry up and wait for more, as the well above average
heat rebuilds in the push back westward of the modeled clouds and
rainfall. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For the 11/06Z TAF period...

Aside from some lingering low AC cigs over portion of Deep E
TX/WCntrl LA, as well as some thin cirrus advancing E into the
region, VFR conditions will continue across much of the region
through the overnight hours. However, low MVFR (and possibly IFR)
cigs should again develop between 10-12Z across portions of Deep E
and ECntrl TX, affecting the LFK and TYR terminals before
lifting/returning to VFR by late morning. Cu cigs should develop
across E TX/SE OK by late morning/early afternoon, with a scattered
cu field developing elsewhere, and isolated/widely scattered
convection again developing over over SE and ECntrl TX, which may
build far enough N of affect the LFK and TYR terminals. Have added
VCSH for these terminals, with any lingering convection diminishing
shortly after 00Z. While much of the cu should also diminish after
00Z, some may linger over E TX, as well as some residual low AC,
which will spread NNE across NE TX through the end of the TAF
period. SSE winds 5kts or less overnight will become more SE 5-10kts
after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed today, but strong to severe
thunderstorms will potentially develop during Sunday afternoon,
evening and perhaps through overnight, across northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  82  67 /  10  10  40  50
MLU  87  60  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  82  61  78  62 /  20  10  70  70
TXK  86  65  83  67 /  10  10  60  70
ELD  85  61  85  63 /   0   0  20  50
TYR  83  65  79  68 /  20  10  70  60
GGG  85  64  81  66 /  10  10  60  60
LFK  85  65  81  66 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13