


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
464 FXUS64 KSHV 161645 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1145 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Much of the region remains blanketed in cloud cover late this morning, but that is doing little to slow the warming process as most locations have already surged well into the 80s while dew points range from the lower to mid 70s. Suffice it to say the atmosphere isn`t lacking in heat or moisture, and expect further destabilization through this afternoon with cap erosion gradually giving way to convective initiation across our NW zones by mid to late afternoon. This convection should further propagate SE over much of our NW half through the evening hours with severe storms possible during this late afternoon into early evening timeframe. Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats at this time and while the tornado threat is lower, it`s not completely negligible in this late spring environment. Further details will be forthcoming with the afternoon forecast package, which should coincide closely with convective initiation later this afternoon. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main story in the short-term portion of the forecast revolves around the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Radar imagery is showing some thunderstorms ongoing across Arkansas early this morning with some light rain showers showing up across our far northern zones. Nothing to be too concerned about right now, but something to keep our eye on for sure. Our eyes will mainly be hyper focused on the threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Very moist air will be in place across our region today with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Storms will have a hard time developing through the early afternoon hours with some decent capping in place. However, as we move later into the afternoon and early evening hours this cap should begin to break as a mid-level jet moves eastward. As a result, thunderstorms will begin to develop across northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Short range guidance is hit or miss on the exact location of the worst of the storms and how they continue into the evening. However, any storms that do develop should be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds with some very large hail in some of the more intense supercell structures. Because of this, we have a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms painted across much of the area. Thunderstorms should diminish some heading into the overnight hours giving us a short break before our next round develops late Saturday afternoon and continues into the evening hours. Right now it looks like storms will develop initially along a dryline across north-central Texas that will congeal into an MCS as it moves east through our area. Typically with these types of systems, the initial threat will be for very large hail with any supercells that develop before it congeals into an MCS and then once this happens the main threat will transition to a wind threat across the area. I think there will be more of a tornado threat across far northeast Texas as storms initially develop as well, but this should diminish some as things start to take on the MCS form. That being said, can`t ever rule out a tornado in these parts with any types of thunderstorms that move through. As for temperatures...it is going to be warm, muggy and uncomfortable through Saturday as our bodies try to adjust to the warmth again. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 There remains some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday. That being said, trends are showing that the worst of the storms will be well to the west of our area, but we do remain in a Marginal Risk from SPC across the northern half for Sunday. Rinse and repeat for Monday and Tuesday, although at this timeframe, confidence becomes less on the strength and location of the thunderstorms, so we will need to continue to monitor the forecast for the potential of severe weather through the middle of the week. Our final system for the week looks to come on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. This will bring us some cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs returning to the 70s and 80s. Enjoy it while you can, it is only a matter of time before the unbearable heat returns. With all these chances of rain, the 7-day QPF amounts will be highest across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas where some widespread 2-3 inches will be possible. With all this coming over the span of 4-5 days, there shouldn`t be any widespread flooding concerns at this time. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Starting the TAF period with MVFR ceilings across most terminals this morning but the moisture is shallow and should scatter out by mid to late morning but with plentiful mid and high clouds through the TAF period. Kept VCTS to the TYR/TXK terminals beginning near 00z this evening and added the ELD terminal to that mention but we should lose storm coverage after midnight tonight so only kept VCTS through 06z or so. Look for S so SSW winds by mid morning through the late afternoon hours sustained near 10-14kts with gusts upwards of 25kts until they decouple after 17/00z. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening over much of the same area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 93 74 / 10 40 30 50 MLU 93 75 93 73 / 10 30 30 40 DEQ 87 64 87 67 / 30 30 30 60 TXK 92 70 91 71 / 30 40 40 60 ELD 92 69 91 70 / 20 50 30 60 TYR 92 72 90 72 / 20 40 40 40 GGG 92 72 91 72 / 10 40 30 50 LFK 94 74 94 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...13