Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 050526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020


VFR conditions can be expected area-wide over the course of this
TAF period. However, visibilities are expected to drop past 05/08z
into brief IFR/MVFR at KLFK as fog and mist build in.
Additionally, rain may be possible later this afternoon at KMLU
and KELD.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 942 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/


Main changes to the forecast for tonight was to lower PoPs down to
nearly zero. Latest national mosaic radar imagery shows the
"closest" showers or thunderstorms moving into Central Oklahoma
and another across northeast Mississippi. Meanwhile, latest
satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies across the area.
Additionally, short range guidance does not suggest any activity
moving across the region tonight. All other aspects of the
forecast for tonight appear to be on track. /33/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

SHORT TERM.../This Afternoon through Friday Night/

Convection that was moving towards the Interstate 30 corridor has
largely dissipated. However, a new line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is rapidly developing across Southern Arkansas and
Northern Louisiana along a remnant outflow boundary from the
earlier storms. Some very weak vertical ascent from a upper
trough axis over the region in also contributing to the
development. Instability has built to well over 2000 J/kg, so
there is plenty of fuel for the convection to persist over North
Central Louisiana, mainly southeast of a line from Stonewall LA to
Strong AR. Severe weather is not anticipated, but some gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall are possible. This activity should
dissipate after sunset as diurnal instability wanes.

The center of a large upper ridge currently over New Mexico,
Southwest Texas, and Northern Mexico will migrate northeast
towards the Texas Panhandle by Friday night. As the ridge expands
over the region, increased subsidence should limit rain chances
even more on Friday. The upper trough axis will generally be east
of the area, but it will still be close enough that a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out
in North Central and Northeast Louisiana. Therefore, only slight
chance to low end chance PoPs were mentioned Friday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to warm, especially with the increased
subsidence. Low-level southerly flow will provide plenty of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico leading to hot and humid
conditions. With daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid
90s, maximum heat index values should be over 100 degrees F.


LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday Night/

Upper-level ridge across the Red River Valley into Arkansas at the
start of the period to be the main factor driving Tropical Storm
Cristobal as it moves north across the Gulf of Mexico. Latest
official forecast has Christobal making landfall across south-
central Louisiana and moving north across the Atchafalaya Basin and
upstream along the Mississippi river. Based on this track, most of
the ArkLaTex should be spared of the brunt of the heavy rainfall and
stronger winds that are typically associated with the front right
quadrant of a moving storm. However, once the storm moves into
Arkansas and Missouri, the threat of localized heavy rainfall will
still remain possible along lingering rain bands that are typically
associated with decaying tropical systems.

Temperatures ahead of Christobal to climb into the lower to middle
90s on Sunday. With dewpoint values around 70, heat index values
could approach 100 degrees in some places.

Increased cloud cover and rainfall to bring much cooler temperatures
on Monday with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
However, temperatures forecast to quickly rebound into the lower to
middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level ridging becomes
re-established across the region. /05/


SHV  94  73  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
MLU  94  74  94  74 /  30  10  20  10
DEQ  94  71  94  72 /  20   0  10   0
TXK  92  72  94  73 /  20   0  10   0
ELD  95  71  96  72 /  20   0  20   0
TYR  93  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
LFK  94  72  95  74 /  10   0  10  10



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