622
FXUS64 KSHV 161959
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
259 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A weak perturbation in the flow aloft is rotating around the
western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the
Carolinas. This disturbance has resulted in scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the sea breeze from Southern Louisiana
eastward into the Florida Panhandle. These showers and
thunderstorms have been gradually moving north or north-northwest
and are just now moving north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Most
of this activity is diurnally-driven and should gradually
dissipate during the evening hours. However, some of the
thunderstorms may persist far enough north to affect portions of
Northeast and North Central Louisiana this evening, mainly
southeast of a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe before
dissipating completely.

The majority of the overnight hours tonight should remain dry, but
the weak disturbance will still be drifting northward along the
Mississippi River. This may result in some early development of
the daytime convection on Monday. Much more widespread and robust
showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon as
instability peaks and as the plume of tropical moisture from the
Gulf flow directly overhead. Most locations should see at least
some chance for rain, but the highest chances for rain should be
across Central and Northeast Louisiana. The rain and associated
cloud cover should cool daytime temperatures considerably. High
temperatures on Monday are only expected to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Once again, the convection should gradually dissipate
by to mid to late evening as daytime instability wanes leaving
most of the night precip-free. Given the rich tropical moisture
available, some of these storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Deep onshore flow will persist into Tuesday as a tropical system
slowly moves toward the mouth of the Rio Grande River. However,
low-level winds should have a more easterly component, which may
advect slightly drier air into the region and result in some lower
rain chances are compared to Monday. However, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected areawide
for Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will become more confined to
East Texas and Western Louisiana on Wednesday as the tropical
system moves farther inland, and surface winds become easterly
cutting off the deeper layer moisture. The greatest convective
coverage will be during the afternoons and diminishing during the
early to mid evening. If any locations receive multiple rounds of
storms Monday through Wednesday, there could be a threat for some
localized flooding as the tropical moisture will promote efficient
rainfall producers. However, any flooding threat is currently
expected to be too isolated and too uncertain to issue any
watches.

For Thursday through Saturday, rain chances will be diminished
significantly, but isolated diurnal convection will still be
possible due to the daily sea breeze and as a series of weak upper
level disturbances move west along the Gulf coast on the southern
periphery of the East Coast ridge. Unfortunately, with chances for
wetting rains becoming very limited, there will be little to stop
the heat and humidity from returning after Wednesday. A relatively
fast warming trend to can be expected to end the work week and for
next weekend. Daytime high temperatures should return to the
middle to upper 90s in most locations by next Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the 16/18z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing another
round of afternoon CU across much of the area, bringing FEW to SCT
and BKN clouds at around 5k feet. Otherwise, radar remains quiet
across our region, but we are seeing some convection across
southern Louisiana. Some of this activity might filter into
portions of our area, but shouldn`t impact any terminals at this
time. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  91  76  88 /   0  50  20  40
MLU  73  89  72  85 /  20  70  20  30
DEQ  71  89  71  88 /   0  30  10  30
TXK  75  92  73  90 /   0  40  10  30
ELD  72  89  71  85 /  10  50  10  30
TYR  74  90  74  90 /   0  40  10  20
GGG  74  90  73  89 /   0  50  10  30
LFK  74  89  73  86 /  10  60  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33