273
FXUS64 KSHV 281823
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
123 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The current forecast is on track and no changes have been made. A
quick synoptic analysis this morning reveals a prevalent ~590dm
ridge of high pressure in the mid levels across the Deep Southern
Plains and into the ArkLaTex, while at the surface, a backdoor
cool front extending from E TX into Central Louisiana is
attempting to saunter northward as a warm front.

Moving forward through the afternoon hours today, the
aforementioned sfc frontal boundary is expected to continue to
make slow progress northward, eventually washing out before it
even crosses the northern half of the CWA. Its movement, albeit
slow, will promote a more humid airmass into far at least far W
and SW zones. This will correspond to the highest heat indices of
around 105-106 degrees today. Elsewhere, subsidence from the upper
level ridge will make for hot conditions, and although dewpoints
will be a few degrees lower than in W/SW zones, heat index values
will will still range from 100-105 degrees. Current heat advisory
will be remain in place as is, although will most likely be
expanded to all areas for Saturday.

Kovacik

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper-level ridging will remain firmly in place over the Southern
Plains through at least the middle of the next work week. Today,
the forecast area will remain between a stationary front to the
south and another back door cold front across the Ozarks and Lower
Ohio River Valley. East-southeast flow in the low-levels will
advect more Gulf moisture into the region bringing increased
humidity and high heat index values. This should be enough to push
peak heat indices above 105 degrees F across most of the area,
with the possible exception of our northernmost counties in
Southwest Arkansas. Therefore, the ongoing Heat Advisory was
maintained with no changes.

The more easterly component and "long way" advection of the
moisture should also keep most of the daily sea breeze convection
south of our area. However, the southern frontal boundary is
expected to become diffuse during the day allowing the low-level
flow to become more southerly and onshore. I can`t rule out the
possibility of a couple of isolated showers or storms affecting
Grant or La Salle Parishes late this afternoon, but current
thinking is that rain chances are too low to warrant mentionable
PoPs.

Very similar conditions are expected for Saturday. However,
increased southerly flow should allow for better chances for
diurnal convection during the afternoon south of a line from
Lufkin TX to Columbia LA. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm today and Saturday. Additional heat headlines are likely
areawide on Saturday as the heat and humidity continue to build.
Excessive Heat Warnings can`t be ruled out this weekend.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Increasingly hot and humid conditions will be the major concern
for much of the long-term period, especially through the middle of
next week as the upper level ridge strengthens over the Southern
Plains. The hottest temperatures of the next week are generally
expected on Tuesday as the upper ridge moves directly over the
forecast area. The latest NBM suggests probabilities of 30 to 60
percent of high temperatures of at least 100 degrees F in portions
of East Texas (mainly Wood, Upshur, Gregg, Rusk, and Wood Counties)
and Louisiana (mainly Caddo, Bossier, Red River, Natchitoches,
and Sabine Parishes) for Tuesday afternoon.

A weak disturbance trapped underneath the ridge is progged to
help push a backdoor cold front south across the area Sunday and
into Monday. This should bring increased chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to most locations Sunday afternoon. The
higher rain chances will be confined to our southernmost zones on
Monday as the front moves south of the region of the disturbance
moves west into Texas. This is expected to be our best chances for
rain in the next 7 days.

Despite the strong ridge, daily chances for diurnal sea breeze
convection will persist each day, mainly south of a line from
Lufkin TX to Columbia LA. Medium range models suggest the ridge
should weaken somewhat during the latter half of the week, which
may allow temperatures to cool a couple of degrees. However,
daytime highs are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s in
most locations.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR continues through this evening and
much of the overnight. Some MVFR cigs likely for our TX terminals
around daybreak and into mid morning. SW winds today are getting
a little gusty now for KTYR at least, more sites to come this
wknd. SW sfc winds will back to S/SE overnight and keep 5 to 10KT
with gusts again on Saturday near 20KT for more of our sites.
Looking for another weak fropa late Sun/early Mon for our next
best chance for convection. Until then and afterwards, hot & dry.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  80  98  79 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  94  75  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  96  79  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  96  76  96  76 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  97  79  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  95  78  95  75 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...24