599
FXUS64 KSHV 300121
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
821 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Hot temperatures across the region persist with most locations
still hovering between 90 and 95 degrees. Weak convection
continues along and behind a seabreeze boundary moving northwest
across north Louisiana into northeast Texas and south Arkansas.
Airmass to begin to stabilize over the next couple of hours
bringing an end to the convection with temperatures forecast to
continue to fall into the lower 80s by midnight. By daybreak,
temperatures are forecast to average in the mid to upper 70s.

The Excessive Heat Warning was allowed to expire. Increased
mixing ahead of a southward drifting frontal boundary will allow
for increased convection across the region on Sunday. With
slightly cooler afternoon highs due to the unstable airmass in
place, afternoon heat index values will remain below 110 degrees.
Thus, the Excessive Heat Advisory has been replaced with a Heat
Advisory. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed across Lower
E TX and much of N LA this afternoon, in VC of a weak inverted
trough aloft that still extends from SE TX across Cntrl LA/MS.
Some of this convection have already produced areas of outflow
bndrys that have cooled temps, particularly across NCntrl LA, with
these areas possibly struggling to reach new max temps for the
day. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region have climbed into the
mid/upper 90s, with some weak mixing noted in areas particularly
away from the convection. Excessive Heat Warning criteria (heat
indices greater than 110 degrees) has been patchy so far this
afternoon, with other locales well into Advisory criteria, but
have elected to maintain the Warning until 01Z this evening,
before transitioning into a Heat Advisory areawide tonight through
01Z Sunday.

The ongoing convection should diminish by mid-evening this evening
with the loss of heating over Deep E TX/N LA, although upper
ridging will remain anchored over the region this evening before
retrograding slightly W over the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX
late tonight through Sunday. The mid-afternoon sfc analysis
indicates a weak sfc front extending from NW OK into SE KS and
NCntrl MO, and will be the focal point for convection development
late this afternoon through tonight as weak perturbations aloft
ride atop the ridge. With the ridge center centered farther to our
W for much of tonight and Sunday, portions of this weakness aloft
should be able to drift far enough SSE Sunday along the front for
scattered convection to continue developing especially from
residual bndrys from earlier convection and with diurnal heating
as they drift SSE through the afternoon. SE OK/SW AR into the
Delta region of NE LA will be the favored areas for convection
development especially for mid and late afternoon, but should be
late enough in the day for temps to climb into the mid and upper
90s again, and Heat Advisory criteria to be met. Given the extent
of instability that persists through Sunday evening, have included
slight chance pops during the evening for all but the Wrn sections
of E TX before the convection diminishes. The weak front remains
progged to slowly backdoor SW into SW AR/NCntrl LA during the
evening, before becoming stationary from extreme NE TX into N LA
Monday.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

With the front becoming stationary over the region Monday, there
will be a division of slightly cooler air to the E and hotter/more
humid air to the W, necessitating the need for additional heat
headlines over all but SE OK/much of SW AR/portions of NCntrl LA.
However, one more day with the potential for scattered convection
will exist near the front Monday, particularly over Lower E TX/N
LA, especially as the weakness aloft drifts S around the ridge
center. Chance pops were maintained for this area especially for
the afternoon with the aid of diurnal heating, before diminishing
by/shortly after sunset. This weak front will linger over the
region Monday night, before washing out Tuesday as the ridge aloft
amplifies and shifts E over the region into the Lower MS Valley.
Thus, the return of the extreme (near triple digit) heat is
anticipated, which will linger through much of the July 4th holiday
week. Some minor relief in the form of isolated afternoon
convection can`t be ruled out over Deep E TX into NCntrl LA along
the Srn periphery of the ridge axis, but this should do little to
ease the heat as these near triple digit temps persist through
late week. A pattern change may be in the offing though by Friday
into next weekend as the ridge center shifts farther E into the SE
CONUS, ahead of weak troughing aloft that is progged to drift SE
into the Plains/Ozarks. This would help to reinforce a weak sfc
front into the region, and focus the potential for at least
isolated to widely scattered convection by the end of the long
term period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Showers and storms are present across the airspace this afternoon
and are developing off of numerous outflow boundaries. That being
said, not every terminal has seen impacts and a general theme of
SCT/BKN sub 10kft coverage prevails the 00z package. By tonight,
CU field coverage should decrease, with radar coverage doing the
same. Meanwhile, FL250 SCT/BKN is expected across the airspace
through Sunday morning and afternoon, as a SCT/BKN CU field
develops once again below 10kft. A cold front working into the
northern airspace by the afternoon will support VCTS, as
specifics regarding terminal impacts still remains somewhat
uncertain. Best chances for now look to be closer to the front,
specifically KELD and KTXK.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  97  79  96 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  78  96  76  94 /  10  40  20  30
DEQ  76  93  74  92 /  10  50  20  20
TXK  80  97  76  95 /  10  40  20  20
ELD  76  95  73  92 /  10  40  20  20
TYR  80  97  79  98 /  10  10  10  20
GGG  79  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  77  97  77  96 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...53