Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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799 FXUS64 KSHV 110829 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The early morning sfc analysis indicates that slightly drier sfc air now bisects E TX in wake of the weak fropa that moved through the region Monday morning, and now has become stationary across S TX into S LA. The sfc theta-e analysis depicts that the drier air considerably lags the frontal position, and resides from the Red River Valley SE into NW and NCntrl LA, on the Srn periphery of sfc ridging that extends farther NE into the Midwest. Meanwhile, the morning water vapor imagery depicts a closed upper low over the Lower TX Panhandle, which remains progged to drift SE today and open up into a trough as it traverses NW into NCntrl TX this afternoon. Convection near the low`s periphery remains scattered this morning, although an uptick in convection is expected as we move through the day especially as the low interacts with a destabilizing air mass with increased diurnal heating and a gradual increase in PW`s. As the leading edge of the trough approaches ECntrl TX this afternoon, isolated to widely scattered convection should increase, although the convection will have to contend with the drier air that has and will continue to mix/backdoor SW during the day into E TX. Have maintained slight chance/low chance pops for the SW sections of E TX this afternoon, but otherwise, near seasonal temps and lower RH`s are expected today under the reflection of the sfc ridging in place. Any convection that does manage to develop over the Wrn sections of E TX should diminish early this evening with the loss of heating and the dry air entrainment, although convection may persist overnight near the apex of the trough as it slides SE through the Hill Country into SE TX. Despite the drier air that will continue to settle SW today, elevated cigs along the upper trough axis will limit the extent of radiational cooling tonight, with these cigs expected to diminish from N to S Wednesday with the departure of the trough. Stronger insolation should yield slightly hotter temps Wednesday, although low RH`s will maintain heat indices near the ambient air temps. Did insert slight chance pops for Srn Cherokee and Angelina Counties Wednesday as some of the short term progs suggest that isolated convection will remain possible. However, a deeper wedge of drier air will build farther S in wake of the departing trough Wednesday, setting the stage for better radiational cooling/more comfortable overnight temps under a mostly clear sky Wednesday night. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Much of the extended period will be dominated by upper ridging over Nrn old MX into the Four Corners Region, that will expand E into the Srn Plains/Ozarks Thursday, and shift E into the Mid- South and Lower MS Valley Friday and Saturday. Thus, even hotter, above normal temps will return to the region for late week into the upcoming weekend, with readings climbing into the mid and upper 90s areawide. Fortunately, sfc ridging will also linger over the area through the period, maintaining a deep Erly flow and thus keeping the Gulf shut off and resulting in manageable RH`s. However, heat indices will near or exceed 100 degrees Saturday and most certainly by Sunday, once a SErly low level flow resumes on the backside of the upper ridge as it builds into the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Ern Seaboard. The medium range progs still suggest that a plume of tropical moisture associated with a weak inverted trough or tropical wave will begin to surge N across the S LA coast Sunday afternoon, which would enhance the potential for scattered convection pushing into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA. Have maintained slight to low chance pops for these areas, although the potential for more scattered convection seems probable over much of the area Monday. However, model variability does increase with respect to the position of the inverted trough aloft, as the ECMWF maintains the trough over much of the TX Coastal Bend whereas the GFS lifts this weakness NNE into the Ozarks and Mid MS Valley. Thus, confidence remains low with the extent and duration of convection, although the influx of moisture should help taper max temps back slightly as we enter the first of the new work week. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For the 11/06Z TAFs, mostly VFR conditions look to persist through the course of this forecast period, with BKN to SCT high clouds overnight, descending to lower VFR and possibly brief MVFR near daybreak. Midmorning development of a new CU field is possible, but precipitation effects do not look likely enough to carry at this time. Northeast winds will be light overnight, becoming more easterly after daybreak and reaching sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 70 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 88 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 87 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 88 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 87 62 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 88 69 90 67 / 20 10 10 0 GGG 89 67 90 66 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 90 71 90 68 / 30 20 20 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...26