838
FXUS64 KSJT 201845
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
145 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A moist and unstable airmass has moved into west central Texas in
the wake of the tropical-based rain shield that moved through the
area this morning.  CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with
dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho
Valley southward.  Given the tropical-based nature of these storms,
they are not expected to become severe, but could produce some
locally heavy downpours due to PWAT values around 2 inches.

As Alberto pushes through central Mexico and continues to degenerate
into a remnant low this evening, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish and become confined to Crockett County
and the western Concho Valley Thursday night.  A more stable airmass
should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge,
located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central
Texas.  This stable pattern should keep most of west central Texas
dry and sunny with decreasing clouds for the rest of Friday. High
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of
days given more sunshine. The one exception is in southern Crockett
County, where some lingering moisture from the remnants of Alberto
may result in some diurnally-driven showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday, as high pressure
rebuilds across West Central Texas and warm southerly flow
persists through the middle of next week. Afternoon high
temperatures will start off in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Friday,
increase into the mid 90s to near 100 by the end of the
weekend, then rise into the upper 90s to up to 104 by Wednesday.
Unfortunately, there are no precipitation chances expected
through the long term forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR ceilings should continue to dissipate over the next 1-2
hours. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon for southern terminals and move from east to west.
Individual cells may produce brief gusty winds.  Storms should
diminish later this evening, with ceilings lowering back to MVFR
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  89  71  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  92  70  96 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    72  89  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   71  88  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
Sweetwater  70  90  71  96 /  20   0   0   0
Ozona       70  87  70  92 /  40  10   0   0
Brady       70  86  69  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK