383
FXUS64 KSJT 210553
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1253 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A moist and unstable airmass has moved into west central Texas in
the wake of the tropical-based rain shield that moved through the
area this morning.  CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with
dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho
Valley southward.  Given the tropical-based nature of these storms,
they are not expected to become severe, but could produce some
locally heavy downpours due to PWAT values around 2 inches.

As Alberto pushes through central Mexico and continues to degenerate
into a remnant low this evening, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish and become confined to Crockett County
and the western Concho Valley Thursday night.  A more stable airmass
should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge,
located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central
Texas.  This stable pattern should keep most of west central Texas
dry and sunny with decreasing clouds for the rest of Friday. High
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of
days given more sunshine. The one exception is in southern Crockett
County, where some lingering moisture from the remnants of Alberto
may result in some diurnally-driven showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the weekend, we continue the warming trend across the region
as dry conditions make a return. A high pressure system will
develop across the southwestern U.S., which will leave us on the
eastern end of this system. This will be the root cause of our hot
and dry conditions. Some locations may make a return to the
triple digits early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across most terminals with the
exception of KABI, which will likely remain VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. These lower ceilings are expected to
lift by 18Z and make way for VFR conditions to persist through
tonight. Winds will remain light and variable through later this
morning before increasing slightly out of the southeast this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  92  70  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    89  70  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   88  70  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  90  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       87  70  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       86  69  90  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP