804
FXUS65 KSLC 030949
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A monsoon surge brings another round of afternoon
thunderstorms to the region today. Drier air will work into the area
for Friday and continue into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery depicts light, disorganized
rain showers ongoing early this morning across areas generally east
of the I-15 corridor, resultant from increased instability ahead an
upper- level low lifting into the Four Corners region today. Per
recent high-resolution model guidance, showers are expected to
invigorate and become more organized into a line generally extending
north-south mid-morning, tracking northeastward through the
afternoon. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms are possible
within this band, with isolated flash flooding possible across
portions of eastern Utah given the focus of monsoonal moisture and
greatest instability over this area.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the remainder of the region behind this band this afternoon,
though drier air intruding into the western Utah will limit flash
flood potential. Though, cannot rule out flash flooding given a
heavier cell develops over a sensitive slot canyon, normally dry
wash, or burn scar. Shower coverage decreases by late afternoon,
though some showers may continue over northwestern Utah through the
overnight hours as a reinforcing trough begins to dig into the Great
Basin.

This aforementioned trough is expected to bring increasing
southwesterly flow and much drier conditions across the region on
Friday, resulting in areas of enhanced to critical fire weather
conditions across western and far southern Utah (see Fire Weather
section below). Please check with local officials regarding
firework/fire bans and restrictions to reduce the threat of wildfire
ignitions Friday afternoon and evening. Increased instability
associated with this trough brings the potential for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, mainly across
northwestern Utah, though coverage may extend into central Utah. As
such, if plans take you outdoors for the 4th of July, keep an eye to
the sky and head indoors when storms approach.

High pressure is expected to quickly build in across the region by
Saturday, continuing into early next week. This pattern will promote
a gradual warming trend, with temperatures climbing well above
seasonal averages through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Overall VFR conditions prevail at the terminal
through the TAF period. Predominant winds remain light out of the
southeast this morning. Outflow from convection over the terrain to
the east may induce an easterly wind as early as 18Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Monsoonal moisture across the
region will yield the highest coverage of thunderstorms from roughly
a line from CDC to HCR and east this afternoon and evening.
Terminals in this area will see a threat of periodic reduction to
IFR conditions in heavier thunderstorms along with the potential for
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system lifting into the Four Corners
region today has allowed for enough instability for a
disorganized rain showers to persist overnight, generally east of
the I-15 corridor. Shower intensity is expected to reinvigorate by
late morning, with the band continuing to move northeastward
through the afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms with stronger cores
are possible within this band early this afternoon, favoring the
eastern portion of the state, especially across the Uintas and
Uinta Basin. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop behind this band, though with lesser chances for wetting
rains as drier air works its way into western Utah this afternoon.

Conditions quickly dry out across the state on Friday, with
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of another weather system
moving into the Great Basin. As such, Red Flag conditions are
expected to develop across the West Desert as RH values dip into
the single digits to low teens with wind gusts between 30-35 mph.
Near critical to critical conditions are also possible across
portions of southwest and far southern Utah, though winds are
trending a bit more marginal in recent guidance. Some scattered
thunderstorms are also possible across northwestern Utah on Friday
afternoon, with potential to produce gusty outflow winds. High
pressure builds through the remainder of the weekend, resulting in
a gradual drying and warming trend into early next week with
increasingly poor overnight recoveries.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ492-495.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for UTZ497-498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Whitlam/Kruse

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity