978
FXUS65 KSLC 241041
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
Issued by National Weather Service Pocatello ID
441 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue across northern
Utah...with showers and thunderstorms continuing across southern
and eastern Utah through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a more widespread
threat of showers and thunderstorms can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected across portions of southern and eastern
Utah today. Parameters look quite similar to Sunday, though CAMS
suggest coverage may be a bit less. Either way, another day of
heightened flash flood threat continues across these locations.
Given storm motions, the highest threat areas look to be the Grand
Staircase and Capitol Reef once again today.

A similar trend continues into Tuesday, with the threat for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding present across portions of southern
and eastern Utah.

Across the north...expect temperatures to be 1-3 degrees cooler
than Sunday...but still quite hot through Tuesday.

Those with outdoor plans across southern and eastern Utah should
consider avoiding slot canyons, normally dry washes, slick rock
areas and other areas prone to flooding through the short term
forecast area. And regardless of location, everyone should follow
proper heat safety precautions.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...High pressure centered over
New Mexico will position our CWA in a moist southwesterly flow.
This moisture will advect into the entire region by Wednesday with
PWATs approaching record levels. PWATs Wednesday and Thursday are
forecast to be >1" across most of the state with values
approaching 1.3" across southern Utah. This moisture will pair
with a trough moving in from the PNW to create scattered
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures remain elevated
with a brief cool down on Friday.

Wednesday`s convection will be driven moreso by a shortwave out
ahead of the main trough. Given the elevated moisture profiles,
storms that do form will be capable of producing flash flooding in
flood prone areas. Some guidance keeps precipitation going in
parts of the CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering
cloud cover/precipitation on Thursday may influence convective
initiation timing and intensity on Thursday afternoon. By Thursday
the main trough will be moving by to our north with enhanced CAPE
and shear profiles along with greater synoptic forcing. These
parameters will increase the risk for strong to severe storms on
Thursday, depending on the amount of clearing we see in the
morning/early afternoon. The air mass moving in behind the trough
will be much drier and cooler, however the southern extent of this
air mass will be limited with less of a cool down across southern
Utah. Areas across northern Utah will see temperatures cool
closer to normal with the passage of this trough.

Friday will be the coolest day of the long term period as ridging
builds back in by the weekend with temperatures warming back to
the mid 90s for most valleys and mid 100s for southern Utah along
with mostly dry conditions. However, this appears to be short
lived as most of the guidance brings another PNW trough through
the region early next week. 36% of guidance has a deeper/faster
moving trough whereas the remaining guidance is a more shallow
trough that is further to our west on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail across the
terminal through the period at the KSLC terminal. Conditions will
be mostly dry (15% chance of an isolated storm) with a few high
clouds. Winds will transition from a southerly drainage flow to a
northerly lake breeze in the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected
through the period for most terminals. Convection will form across
central and southern Utah in the afternoon with outflow
boundaries creating periods of gusty and erratic winds. Norhtern
Utah remains mostly dry. Winds will become breezy in the afternoon
for most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms with the threat of heavy
rain will continue across southern and eastern Utah, while
northern Utah remains hot and dry through Tuesday. By Wednesday,
an upper level system will begin to cross into the Pacific
Northwest, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms to
the state and relief from the very low humidities. Drier air will
work into western Thursday and much of southern Utah Friday,
bringing the threat of critical fire weather conditions once
again.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Mahan

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