103
FXUS01 KWBC 102000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 00Z Thu Jun 13 2024

...Threat for flash and urban flooding this week over the Florida
Peninsula as rich tropical moisture overspreads the region...

...Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continues with storms in
Texas; severe storms forecast for the Upper Midwest later
Wednesday...

...Heat-related Advisories/Warnings in place for the central
California Valleys and portions of the Southwest as temperatures
soar into the 100s...

A very stormy and wet week is in store for the Florida Peninsula
as a steady plume of rich, tropical moisture from the western
Caribbean begins to overspread the area ahead of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped just to the north.
Multiple rounds of intense downpour producing storms (rain rates
of 2"+ per hour) are expected not only through the current
forecast period (Wednesday evening), but are likely to continue
into the weekend. Slight Risks (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
are in effect both Tuesday and Wednesday for the threat of flash
flooding, particularly for urban areas, and a higher threat level
may be necessary if confidence in day-to-day storm locations
increases. While antecedent conditions are dry in the region, the
threat outside urban areas may also increase with each day as the
heavy rainfall begins to lead to wetter soils more susceptible to
flooding.  Further west, additional storms are expected along the
boundary along the immediate Gulf Coast and into portions of Texas
the next couple of days. While the available moisture will not be
as high and rain rates/totals are not forecast to be as heavy as
further east, there will still be an isolated risk of flash
flooding, most likely over central Texas. The Storm Prediction
Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 2/5) over the Edwards Plateau Tuesday where some of the
more intense storms could produce some large hail and damaging
winds.

Showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal system
passing through the northern/central Plains this evening. The
system will lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest Tuesday with
some showers and storms expected, though totals will likely remain
light to moderate as storm coverage/intensity decreases. Another
system will approach and move into the Pacific Northwest early
Tuesday and pass through the northern Rockies by Wednesday, though
little to no precipitation is expected across the region. As the
system enters the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Wednesday
afternoon, better moisture streaming northward will bring a
greater chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has included a Slight
Risk over portions of the Upper Midwest for the threat of very
large hail and damaging winds.

Much of the West will remain well-above average this week as an
upper-level high begins to build in over the Southwest and
northern Mexico. The greatest threat from the heat will stretch
from the central California valleys into portions of southern
Nevada/Arizona Tuesday before expanding even further east into
southern New Mexico and far west Texas by Wednesday. Here,
heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as temperatures
soar well into the 100s and nighttime lows in the 70s and low 80s
provide little relief. The risk from the heat is characterized as
`Major` (level 3/4) which considers impacts that will be felt by
the entire population that are without effective cooling or
adequate hydration, not just those individuals more sensitive to
heat. Much above average temperatures will also spread into
portions of the north-central U.S. by Wednesday, with many highs
in the upper 80s to mid-90s from the central/northern Plains into
portions of the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, temperatures will begin
to warm-up and return closer to normal over the next couple of
days for much of the Interior Northeast/Ohio Valley following many
highs in the 60s Monday. Most of the eastern/southern U.S. will be
near average with highs in the 70s/80s for the Northeast, 80s in
the Mid-Atlantic, and 80s and 90s from the Southern Plains into
the Southeast.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$