665
FXUS62 KTAE 262351
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
751 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Thunderstorm activity started a little earlier than
expected today and this has resulted in outflow from convection in
North Florida moving into portions of South Georgia and Southeast
Alabama. While the environmental flow is more favorable for the
continuation of convection in South Central Georgia, a few
thunderstorms might make it into Southeast Alabama.

In any event, storms will be diurnally driven overall, and are
expected to diminish in coverage shortly after sunset. As is often
the case following afternoon storm events, patchy fog is expected
around Tallahassee on Thursday morning and perhaps Valdosta as well.

Overnight, expect increasing coverage of storms over the  marine
area as moderate southwesterly flow and sufficient instability
should be enough to get overnight storms going. Over the land area,
it will be a warm muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Troughing aloft leading up to the weekend
will allow a stationary front just north of our CWA border to slide
south, cooling temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the area
Friday. Heat indices will see a brief decline into the low to mid
100s, with some heat advisories appearing possible. Additionally,
some greater shower coverage tomorrow evening may be possible as
this frontal feature moves through the area.

On Saturday, ridging will begin to build into the area allowing
temperatures to soar back into the upper 90s and perhaps the low
100s locally through Monday. Robust moisture will remain in place,
resulting in heat indices reaching into the 109-115 range across our
FL counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Heat
advisories appear likely once again this weekend. Thunderstorms are
also possible, though areal coverage may be less as high pressure
takes over resulting in more localized threats. On Tuesday,
temperatures may cool somewhat as a frontal feature approaches the
area once again.

Low temperatures each night through the period will generally stay
within the mid to upper 70s offering very little cooling from the
afternoon heat and mugginess. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the early morning hours.
All terminals except ECP could see some patchy fog reducing
visibilities a few hours before sunrise. Highest confidence would
be at TLH and VLD where heavy downpours impacted those terminals
this afternoon, lower confidence at DHN and ABY. After sunrise
all terminals are expected to be VFR with another round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected to impact all
terminals tomorrow afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions possible
within/around thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

West southwest winds generally 15kts or less will prevail
through Sunday before becoming calm. Wave heights around 1 to 3 feet
will prevail through the forecast period with 3 foot waves being
favored west of Apalachicola. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon and evening with gusty and erratic winds
near and within these thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Moist and humid conditions will continue through the
next couple days with above normal chances of mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will be well above
critical thresholds. Transport winds will be occasionally strong
out of the southwest and this will lead to potentially high
dispersions, especially on Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of
localized nuance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each
afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  60
Panama City   80  88  78  88 /  30  50  50  50
Dothan        77  91  74  91 /  30  60  30  60
Albany        77  94  74  93 /  30  60  30  60
Valdosta      77  94  75  94 /  20  50  20  50
Cross City    77  92  76  93 /  10  40  20  40
Apalachicola  81  88  79  88 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Worster