964
FXUS62 KTAE 200509
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
109 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Have nudged PoPs downward overnight given current radar and
satellite trends, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure gradually builds into the region as the flow aloft
becomes increasingly anticyclonic. For the rest of this afternoon
and evening, some decent vertical depth and occasional radar echoes
within the cumulus field east of the Flint River Valley in GA into
the FL Big Bend, where we`ve carried PoPs up to 20 pct. This will
result in sprinkles or the occasional light rain shower and this
is included in the forecast until around sunset. Where there is a
sea-breeze per TLH WSR-88D closer to the Forgotten Coast, cannot
rule out a brief rumble of thunder. Tonight, dry conditions with
patchy fog a good bet, mainly east of the Flint River in GA into
the FL Big Bend and portions of the eastern Panhandle, which is
expected to dissipate by around 9 AM ET/8 AM CT. On Friday, a
partly sunny day with the development of cumulus clouds, with
dry weather expected. The only exception could be closer to the
I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend late in the afternoon
or evening, as a couple of showers may spill over into the area
with the east coast sea-breeze. However, the majority of the
guidance keeps it dry, so this is a low probability. The lack
of moisture and lift supports this, hence the dry forecast.
Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Friday
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging builds in from the west while surface high
pressure settles in. This will lead to quiet and dry weather with
above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The weather will be on repeat through the first half of the week
as upper level ridging dominates. Chances for precipitation
increase mid week as the upper level ridge may begin to break
down. In addition to that, eyes remain on the tropics. The NHC
continues to highlight a now medium chance (40%) of development in
the northwest Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf. At this time it
is too early to determine any specifics about track, strength,
and impacts as there is high uncertainty within ensembles and
models. Residents and visitors should monitor the forecast for
updates at hurricanes.gov. Now is a good time to review your
hurricane plans and hurricane supply kit.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A bit of patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor and
may affect KVLD later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected through Friday, as
winds remain light and variable and seas remain low. Come the
weekend, mainly easterly winds will get established and then hold
through mid next week. This will lead to an increase of seas of 1
to 3 feet, with the larger waves being found offshore. Cautionary
conditions may be observed next week during the overnight hours if
we`re able to get the stronger easterly surges. Dry weather
prevails through the weekend, with showers and storms starting to
creep back into the forecast early or mid next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mainly dry weather on tap through early next week. High pressure
gradually builds into the region with northeast winds on Friday and
Saturday, and minimum afternoon RH values dipping into the mid-40s
to mid-50s away from the coast. Fair dispersions are in order as
well

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dry conditions look to persist through the weekend and into early
next week. At this time there are no hydrology concerns; however,
it is worth noting that the CPC has above normal chances for
precipitation in the 8-10 day forecast. This is likely due to the
anticipated development of a tropical cyclone in either the
northwest Caribbean or southeast Gulf. At this time it is too
early to determine what, if any type, of hydrology impacts we
might see. Especially since there is high uncertainty with the
ensemble and global models of where this system could go. Stay
tuned to the forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  69  89  69 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   90  72  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        89  69  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        88  68  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      88  69  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    89  70  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  87  74  86  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR