520
FXUS62 KTAE 222336
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
736 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Much of the moisture from AL92 has had a difficult time penetrating
further west than the I-75 corridor.  This is partially caused by a
stout upper level ridge that is nosing east across the deep south.
This upper level ridge has imparted a northwesterly flow over AL92
today, effectively separating much of the shower and thunderstorm
activity from it`s center. This upper level northwest flow has kept
much of the shower and thunderstorm activity relegated to the
Florida peninsula. The ridge is once again expected to remain quasi-
stationary across the area, which will keep PoPs low for much of the
region on Sunday. While under the influence of this upper level
ridge, high temperatures are expected to reach the warmest they have
been all year, with much of the area potentially reaching near 100
degrees tomorrow. This combined with some low level moisture that
has pushed west from AL92 will lead to heat index values in the 108-
110 range across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle.
Given these heat index values, a heat advisory has been issued for a
large portion of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend tomorrow.
Sensitive individuals should take frequent breaks and remain hydrated
if working outdoors on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level trough swings across the northern Great Lakes and
into the northeast, pushing upper level high pressure off to the
west. Surface high pressure will be to the north, which should
allow another day of unseasonably hot temperatures. Highs will
generally be in the upper 90s along and north of I-10, while south
they vary from the mid to upper 90s. It`s quite possible we`ll
have another day of Heat Advisory criteria for the FL counties, as
MaxApt Ts for the afternoon will range from 103-110 degrees.
Moisture return is a bit higher on Monday, with the best chance
for storms being along the seabreeze in our FL counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot weather and unsettled weather will be the story for the long
term forecast as Gulf moisture gets pushed into the region. High temperatures
remain elevated in the upper 90s through Wednesday, before
falling to into low to mid 90s for the end of the forecast period.
A large upper level trough sets up which will allow a few fronts
will try to sag into the southeast. Northwest flow is also
possible, with either of these features potentially leading to
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There is
a small chance of a stray shower around VLD this evening, but the
chance appears too low to include in the TAF at this time. Another
small chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected for Sunday
afternoon around TLH and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Winds have veered to the southeast and south today, and will
shift to the south and southwest tonight. Mainly southwesterly
winds should then hold through Monday before teetering between a
westerly and southwesterly component afterwards. Seas will also
generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being
favored west of Apalachicola. However, long- period swells will
continue through the period as another disturbance develops in the
Bay of Campeche this weekend. Nightly chances of showers and
storms are possible over the waters, mainly east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions look to be present across the region the next several
days, which can lead to dangerous burning conditions. Overall,
outside of the heat, the largest concerns will be high dispersions
primarily north of I-10 tomorrow. These high dispersions will be
caused by the deep mixing heights reaching near 8000 feet combined
with transport winds out of the southwest at around 10 mph. Minimum
RH values will only drop into the mid to upper 30s areawide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Moisture will continue to infiltrate the region as southwesterly
flow ushers into the region. A large trough will sit over the
east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could
produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is
expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  98  77  98 /  20  30  10  50
Panama City   78  92  79  92 /   0  10  10  30
Dothan        73  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  40
Albany        74  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  30
Valdosta      75  98  77  98 /  30  30  10  40
Cross City    76  95  75  94 /  20  50  20  60
Apalachicola  78  90  79  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Sunday for FLZ010-012>019-026>028-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR