281
FXUS62 KTAE 231503
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1103 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No changes were needed to today`s forecast as it is on track for
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The main stories for today are dangerous heat (by late June
standards) and a continued high risk of rip currents:

Heat - A strong ridge of high pressure over the region will suppress
most convection this afternoon outside of isolated seabreeze
activity along the eastern I-10 corridor. As a result, mostly
sunny skies are expected. Factoring in 500-mb heights in the
594-592 dm range, 850- mb temperatures about 19-20C, and a deep
mixed layer yields a dangerously hot day. The former are above the
KTLH daily 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology.
Forecast high temperatures are widespread upper 90s to 100 degrees
away from the immediate coast with peak heat indices up to 112 in
much of our FL counties. The existing Heat Advisory has been
expanded in area to now include the remainder of the Panhandle +
Lafayette County...in effect from 10AM CT/11AM ET to 7PM CT/8PM
ET. Overnight lows in the mid 70s won`t provide much relief.
Please practice appropriate heat safety, e.g.,
www.weather.gov/heatsafety. Know your heat risk as well by
checking out www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk.

Rip currents - Persistent long-period southerly swells will make for
a continued high risk of rip currents at all local beaches today and
into early next week. We urge all beachgoers to heed beach flags,
swim near a lifeguard, and take the risks seriously. If double-red
flags are flying, the beach is open, but water is closed to the
public. As a reminder, rip currents are the #1 weather-related
killer at the beaches along the Northern Gulf Coast. More
information can be found at www.weather.gov/tae/ripcurrentawareness.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Light northwesterly flow is expected aloft through the short term
period with a ridge centered to the west still nosing over the
area. This will keep temperatures quite hot both Monday and
Tuesday, with highs forecast in the mid 90s near the coast and the
upper 90s to low 100s inland both afternoons. Opted to go a little
on the higher side of guidance for the high temperatures due to
observed temps yesterday and in previous similar setups running
a few degrees higher than forecast. Max heat indices in the
afternoons are forecast to climb into the 105-113 degree range,
with the highest values expected across the Florida zones where
moisture is higher. If these values hold, expect heat advisories
over at least part of the area both days. Lows are also forecast
to be quite warm, ranging in the mid to upper 70s.

With troughing beginning to take hold over the eastern CONUS early
next week along with ample moisture, rain chances are forecast to
return on Monday before increasing a bit Tuesday. NBM is quite
excited with fairly high PoPs, particularly on Tuesday. While we
kept some PoPs in place, the forecast is a fair bit lower than the
NBM due to uncertainty with how much convection we`ll actually get
if the influence of the ridging nosing over from the west remains
in place. Plus, it seems like NBM has been overdoing PoPs a lot
over the last couple of months. If it ends up actually being
correct, high temps will likely end up being a bit lower as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Pretty much the same pattern is expected through the rest of the
week with troughing over the eastern CONUS and southwesterly to
westerly flow at the surface. Hot temperatures continue with daily
showers and thunderstorms forecast. Left high temperatures alone
for the most part due to the retreat of the mid level ridge by
Wednesday. However, also opted to lower PoPs a bit from what NBM
had pretty much everyday due to the observed high bias of late.
Still, scattered to even widespread showers and storms will still
be possible each day. While less of a slam dunk as Sunday through
Tuesday, heat advisory conditions will still be possible each
afternoon, particularly if PoPs trend drier than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Ongoing VFR conds prevail thru the TAF period. Light west winds
persist, though FL terminals get a SW shift from the aftn
seabreeze. Thunder is possible invof of TLH/VLD between 20Z & 0Z,
per the latest HRRR model run. Any convection appears to stay
just north of the ECP during that time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through Monday before
teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas
will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves
being favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells
will continue through the period as another disturbance develops
in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Nightly chances of showers
and storms will be possible over the waters with the highest
chances east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The main fire concerns over the next 3 days are dangerous heat
conditions, high afternoon dispersions mainly north of the FL state
line, and increased potential for thunderstorms to start the work
week. For today, only isolated convection is forecast along the I-10
corridor on the Eastern FL Big Bend side while light west winds
become more southwesterly in the afternoon, courtesy of the
seabreeze. Inland temperatures likely peak to at or near 100 degrees
with peak heat indices up to 112 in most of our FL counties where a
Heat Advisory is in effect. Similarly hot weather is expected Monday
and Tuesday, but we also see an uptick in rain chances with the
approach of a sagging front from the north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Moisture will continue to infiltrate the region as southwesterly
flow ushers into the region. A large trough will sit over the
east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could
produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is
expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  75  99  77 /  30   0  40  20
Panama City   94  78  93  79 /  10   0  30  20
Dothan        99  75  98  76 /  10   0  30  10
Albany       100  74  99  76 /  10   0  30  20
Valdosta     100  74 100  76 /  20  10  40  20
Cross City    95  75  95  76 /  30  10  40  20
Apalachicola  92  78  91  79 /  10   0  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...KR