296
FXUS62 KTAE 271750
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

No changes to the forecast for this morning. Widespread showers
and storms associated with an upper level trough continue to
affect the Panhandle and southeast Alabama this morning. These
areas of showers are moving slowly east, but ahead of them
convective cirrus is limiting the potential for destabilization
this afternoon and the redevelopment of widespread shower and
storm chances further east. There still is a potential for more
development this afternoon given the moist environment, but it
could take longer for storms to develop across our eastern
counties. Temperatures will also likely remain a few degrees
cooler than forecast highs should this cirrus stick around.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Finally, a break in the heat, but it comes with a higher chance for
showers and thunderstorms. In fact, a few showers and storms are
already getting going along the Emerald Coast early this morning.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase near the coast this
morning, then spread inland through the late morning and afternoon
as a shortwave approaches the area. Coverage will be greater than
the past few days, bringing much needed rain to the area. Some of
the storms today could be strong to briefly severe, mainly over
the GA counties and the FL Big Bend north of I-10 where there will
be a little more time to destabilize. Deep- layer shear will also
increase to about 15-20 kt in this area, which is sufficient for
severe storms in the summer. There is also ample instability, but
not a lot of DCAPE, so storms in south Georgia and north Florida
would be capable of water-loaded downbursts today. This is where
SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5)
for today due to the threat of locally damaging wind gusts. Storms
should move out of the area early this evening, but additional
showers and storms will develop during the overnight hours near
the Emerald Coast again as the shortwave still slowly moves
through the area.

Thanks to the added cloud cover and beneficial rain, high
temperatures will be quite a bit "cooler" than recent days with
upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Heat index values will still
be around 100-107 given the abundant moisture in place. Lows tonight
will still be muggy as well, settling into the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper level short wave trough and an associated surface feature
will enhance convective coverage on Friday. As these features weaken
or dissipate, PoPs will decrease a bit, but good coverage is still
expected. With WMSI expected to be lower today than on Wednesday,
the threat for severe downbursts is lower. As for temps, the
convective coverage and associated cloud cover should keep max temps
close to seasonal averages on Friday. Nevertheless, some inland
locations in Florida could flirt with heat advisory criteria with
heat indices around 108 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper ridge will retrograde westward during this period putting
the area in a northwest flow regime. This will help to drive another
frontal boundary into the area by early next work week, increasing
PoPs once again. Heat indices look to reach advisory levels from
U.S. 84 in South GA south across parts of the FL Big Bend on Sunday
with the hottest day appearing to be Monday when an advisory may be
needed for most of our FL counties. Convective coverage will drop
back to seasonal levels for the mid to late part of next week
allowing actual temperatures to rise back into the upper 90s for
many areas. We can`t rule out a few spots reaching 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The main forecast challenge will be timing showers, rain, and
thunderstorms against the backdrop of a moist, unstable air mass
with southwesterly low-mid level flow. We are currently left with
areas of stratiform rain and rain-cooled air. A broken line of
thunderstorms is currently making headway across the western
Panhandle, but it is likely to be weakening as it reaches ECP and
DHN in the next few hours, thanks to the rain-cooled air. A lull
in activity is expected this evening.

In the hours before sunrise, look for a resurgence of convection
over the warm nearshore Gulf waters, most likely affecting ECP
well before sunrise. The convection should eventually spread to
the other terminals during the valid period, but it is unclear for
now what mix there will be of convective elements with and without
lightning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The rip current risk looks to remain high today and Friday for our
southwest facing beaches, and this elevated risk could persist
through the weekend, once again.

Outside the surf zone, moderate west to southwest winds will persist
with some weakening in wind speeds expected by the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

South to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph combined with
increasingly high dispersions each day will result in spreading
pockets of high dispersions each day. Showers and thunderstorms will
be likely starting near the coast this morning, then spreading
inland in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms today could
be strong to briefly severe with strong gusty winds being the
primary threat. We`ll repeat the high rain chances Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of localized
nuisance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  90  76  93 /  30  90  20  80
Panama City   79  88  79  90 /  60  80  30  60
Dothan        75  90  74  93 /  30  80  20  70
Albany        75  91  74  94 /  30  80  20  60
Valdosta      76  93  75  96 /  40  70  20  60
Cross City    77  92  76  94 /  30  80  30  70
Apalachicola  80  88  80  89 /  50  80  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Wool