Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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718 FXUS62 KTBW 122334 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 734 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A difficult forecast with lots of uncertainty around the timing and reformation of showers and storms across terminals. Most of the convection is now inland and south with only a few storms developing along weak outflow boundaries, which should dissipate over the next few hours. Some activity is expected to develop later tonight and into the early morning hours of Thursday, perhaps continuing on and off through the day. Intermittent MVFR to IFR conditions are anticipated during this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Drier air to the north and an extremely moist airmass to the south. Today`s weather has been dramatically different across a relatively small geographic region. Central Florida has been the transition zone between a continental and tropical airmass. A shortwave over the deep south is forcing the drier continental air south into the northern Gulf and across the northern half of the peninsula as a tropical wave lifts over the southern half of the state. In response, TPA ACARS soundings are showing a PW of 1.65 inches. By contrast, KRSW is showing 2.65 inches. Southwest Florida continues to be favored for heavy rainfall through at least tomorrow. Meanwhile, it looks more like convection will be more scattered across Central and N Florida, developing along the seabreeze boundary this afternoon. The moisture axis may still lift northward (at least that is the latest thinking) as the tropical wave propagates to the NE, bringing back a better potential for more widespread rainfall again tomorrow. As the weekend approaches and the tropical wave lifts north, ridging will build back in aloft. This favors more typical diurnal convection later into the weekend and next week. Once this happens, the low-level flow will transition from a WSW to a ESE flow. This typically favors more afternoon/evening convection along the west coast. However, if the upper-level flow is more NE and advects a drier airmass aloft in, this may limit the overall convective potential. For now, though, it looks like decent rainfall coverage is likely as the rainy season continues into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 90 78 89 / 50 60 50 90 FMY 76 87 76 87 / 60 90 80 100 GIF 76 89 75 90 / 50 70 50 90 SRQ 77 89 76 89 / 70 80 70 90 BKV 72 92 72 92 / 40 60 60 80 SPG 80 89 80 90 / 60 60 60 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close