Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
989 FXUS62 KTBW 170046 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 846 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An U/L trough will persist over the southeast U.S. and Florida through the week, with an U/L level ridge building over the area during the weekend. Deep layer moisture is gradually increasing over the forecast area, however will be limited to PCPW values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the next several days. Weak onshore boundary layer flow combined with marginal deep layer moisture will limit convection to scattered activity through much of the week, with highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida. High cloudiness over the much of the peninsula will begin to clear out from northern and central areas on Wednesday, and southwest Florida Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Weather pattern will look very similiar each day this week. PTC 8 which is expected to push into the Carolinas and slowly push north will help to keep west to southwest winds to Florida. The biggest story for us will be the lack of shower activity across the area. This is due to lower PWs that will be over the state. Our average PW this time of year is around 1.8 while it looks like we will be measure more around 1.5 to 1.7 each day. It might not seem that big of a difference but that slightly lower PW will keep chances of rain mainly between 20 to 40 percent each day. An upper level trough looks to push through sometime on Friday which will shift our upper level flow to the northeast. However, those lower PWs will still be around keep shower chances between 20 to 40 percent for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Clouds have broken up and we finally see VFR conditions at all airport in the CWA. This trend looks to continue over the next 24 hours with light winds generally staying below 10 knots. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions expected at all terminals overnight. Areas of broken MVFR CIGs 015-025 expected to develop after sunrise Wednesday morning, lifting to VFR and becoming predominately scattered cloud cover during the afternoon hours. A few afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs vcnty all terminals...with lowest probability at SRQ. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The forecast will remain mostly the same each day this week. We will continue to see weak westerly flow each day with winds around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will remain on the lower end each day hovering around 20 to 40 percent. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 30 FMY 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 20 60 GIF 75 91 75 93 / 20 50 10 50 SRQ 76 90 76 91 / 20 20 10 30 BKV 71 90 71 91 / 10 30 0 30 SPG 79 90 80 90 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery