Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
156 FXUS62 KTBW 271900 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Upper level troughing will linger over the eastern U.S. over the next few days with shortwaves moving through the helping to push a weakening frontal boundary into the region Tuesday. Moisture will increase some south of this boundary leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the northern waters and Nature Coast later tonight, with a few showers possibly moving onshore further south toward morning. The westerly flow will take the highest rain chances into the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula Tuesday afternoon as the boundary washes out over the area. For Wednesday, high pressure will build in from the north with some drier air moving back into the area keeping rain chances confined mainly to the southern interior and southwest Florida. The high will drift east and continue to build south late in the week with an easterly flow setting up. At the same time some more upper level shortwave energy will move across the area and with enough moisture we should see isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through early tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop in the southwest flow ahead of a weakening cool front late tonight into Tuesday morning. Westerly winds at 10 to 13 knots this afternoon will diminish to around 5 knots or less this evening and overnight. Southwest to west winds will then increase back to around 10 knots by midday Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will settle over the area on Tuesday and wash out. This boundary will bring chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday, but gradient winds are forecast to remain less than 15 knots outside of thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will then stretch across the region through the rest of the week with no headlines anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A weakening front will stall out over northern Florida Tuesday, resulting in increasing humidity and rain chances. Some drier air will move back into the region Wednesday with relative humidity values forecast to drop to critically low levels Wednesday afternoon, but mainly over the interior. High dispersion indices are also expected in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 91 78 95 / 20 30 0 10 FMY 77 94 76 96 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 75 95 74 97 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 78 92 76 95 / 10 20 0 10 BKV 72 92 70 97 / 20 30 0 10 SPG 81 90 81 94 / 20 20 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close