141
FXUS62 KTBW 131730
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Two separate areas of convective activity still appear to be a
possibility later today with sea breeze convection expected to
form by late afternoon and evening across the interior and a
potential MCS approaching the region from the Gulf coast states.
Regarding the sea breeze activity, PoPs are in the 45%-60% for
interior areas as the sea breeze spreads inland and collides with
the east coast sea breeze with westerly winds aloft helping to
keep this activity a bit closer towards the eastern half of the
peninsula. However, any deeper convection that does develop within
our CWA will have the potential of localized torrential
downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and hail. Meanwhile, hi-res
guidance continues to struggle with how the MCS that is currently
across the Gulf coast states will eventually track as it moves to
the ESE across the northern Gulf waters and nearby southeastern
states along a baroclinic zone. Latest trends suggest that this
complex should be on a gradual weakening trend by the time it
approaches the Nature Coast by this evening but there should be
enough instability in the offshore Gulf waters to sustain this
feature for as it approaches our coastline. Thus, can`t rule out
a damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornado and/or waterspout
threat for portions of the Nature Coast with this activity
depending on how convection evolves so latest trends will
continued to be monitored throughout the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to
yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves
further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds
increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase
tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms
developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra
energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting
elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these
ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed
portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this
afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the
interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat
will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping
across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with
accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area
bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked
areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas
northward, Wednesday.

Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to
build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average
side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions will generally be in place through the remainder of
the day but scattered showers and storms will develop across
interior areas and this activity may be in close enough proximity
to KLAL for some brief periods of restrictions. There will also
be a line of showers and storms that approaches the area mainly
north of Tampa Bay by this evening and should generally be on a
weakening trend but some VCSH may be possible at Tampa Bay area
terminals. Otherwise, patchy low stratus overnight may support a
period of MVFR CIGs before VFR conditions return by Tuesday
morning. However, forecast guidance does suggest that another
thunderstorm complex may approach the area by Tuesday afternoon
but forecast confidence is too low to include mention in current
TAF issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds
that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning
tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values
remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are
expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and
continuing through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  79  88 /  40  40  40  70
FMY  77  94  79  92 /  10  10  10  40
GIF  74  95  76  90 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  77  91  77  90 /  10  20  30  60
BKV  70  93  73  88 /  50  60  50  80
SPG  80  89  80  87 /  30  40  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme