325
FXUS62 KTBW 140643
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
243 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An active weather pattern continues as multiple rounds of showers
and storms move through the area. Another MCS will slide across the
northern Gulf and will likely be impacting our northern waters by
morning. Current models are keeping the bulk of the convection
with this round of storms mainly north of I4. However with the
current dynamic setup, some storms could be severe with hail,
damaging winds and a possible tornado. SPC currently has areas
south to Sarasota county in a slight risk with the remaining areas
of the CWA in a marginal risk.

Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough
continues to move across the Mississippi valley.  The cold front
associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and
storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Once again
with increased instability, 500mb temps around -9/-10C, and a strong
westerly flow, severe storms could be possible. Thus SPC, has placed
the middle of the peninsula in a marginal risk. Primary threats will
be hail and damaging winds.

Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week,
enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in
the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the
area bringing another round of convection. Hopefully with the
multiple rounds of rain and storms, everyone`s grass will once
again be green.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Some MVFR ceilings possible early this morning could impact areas
north of SRQ. A couple rounds of showers/storms will move through
today with the first round expected near TAF sites around 15Z. The
second round will come overnight tonight. Neither round or
convection is expected to make it as far south as PGD, RSW, or FMY.
Winds will also be gusty out of the SW through most of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact
waters this morning. Primary concerns will be strong winds,
isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds
will also increase ahead of these lines calling for Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines for most areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An increase in moisture has helped RH values remain above critical
levels for most areas, however they could dip down for areas that
are left out of the rainfall. Several rounds of
showers/thunderstorms expected through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  87  77 /  30  50  80  30
FMY  93  78  92  78 /  10  20  40  30
GIF  94  75  90  74 /  40  40  80  30
SRQ  91  78  89  76 /  20  40  70  40
BKV  93  72  87  68 /  50  60  90  20
SPG  89  80  86  78 /  30  50  70  40

&&




.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Close