058
FXUS62 KTBW 210654
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Scattered showers and an isolated storm possible this afternoon
and evening as NE flow south of surface ridging over the E
Seaboard extending down into the state advects Atlantic moisture
across the area and the E-W coast sea breezes interact initially
over the interior before spreading toward the W FL coast. Ridging
aloft builds over the area from the W Gulf through Friday leading
to low rain chances mid to late week with increased subsidence
likely limiting sufficient moisture and convective activity to
southern interior and SWFL locations, where sea breeze
interactions may be able to squeeze out a few showers and storms
from Wed-Fri.

Ridging aloft breaks down over the weekend as a series of
shortwave disturbances and associated surface systems push across
the E U.S. to our north allowing winds to shift more southerly as
the surface ridging over the E Seaboard is displaced SE into the
W Atlantic. Slightly higher rain chances return during the weekend
in the absence of the ridging aloft coupled with the southerly
flow, with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms generally favoring areas E of I-75 except for parts of
SWFL.

Early next week, ridging aloft looks to extend across the S Gulf
while broad troughing over the E U.S. extends S into the N Gulf
states, with surface ridging setting up E of the state in the
Atlantic. This would favor the potential for increased moisture
working across the state with deep layer westerly flow, with
scattered showers and storms likely focusing toward interior
areas and E FL with lesser chances toward W FL and coastal areas.

Temps through the period are likely to warm a bit after today,
with highs today in the lower 90s away from the coast and the mid
to upper 80s along the immediate coast due to the sea breeze. Mid
week and beyond will feature highs in the lower to mid 90s away
from the coast with pockets of upper 90s possible, especially Wed-
Fri, with areas closer to the coast in the upper 80s to around
90.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR through period with E-NE winds overnight into morning turning
onshore and increasing during the afternoon with the sea breeze
for coastal terminals. Chance of a few showers reaching terminals
during evening before dissipating as interior convection triggered
by afternoon sea breeze works back toward the coast, however low
enough confidence to exclude mention this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure along the E Seaboard and over the waters through
late week will favor NE to E winds, turning onshore with the sea
breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late
evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late
week into the weekend allowing winds to become southerly over the
weekend and westerly early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure ridging into the state from the Mid-Atlantic will
favor NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic over the
weekend allowing winds to shift more southerly. Expect winds near
the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea
breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  74  92  75 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  93  73  93  74 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  90  71  92  71 /  30  10  10   0
SRQ  91  73  92  73 /  10  10  10   0
BKV  91  67  93  68 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  89  77  92  78 /  10  10  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Wynn