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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200022
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
822 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.UPDATE...
It was a cool, wet, and cloudy day as weak low pressure
moving out of the Gulf helped to produce descent isentropic
lift. Currently, the bulk of the precipitation is south of a
line extending from Sebring to Punta Gorda. This will
continue to taper off over the next few hours although
another quarter to half inch of rain is possible over Lee
county before it`s all said and done.. Radar also shows a
few stray showers along the I-4 corridor moving southwest
associated with another frontal boundary, but these are
breaking up with time.

Cloud cover, winds, and low level moisture will prohibit
much cooling overnight. In fact, observations across Lee
county are already not far off from their forecasted lows.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s across the Nature
Coast to around 60 south. The forecast this evening is on
track with only minor adjustments made to PoPs.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our north with weak area of low pressure
moving NE across the southern Gulf will keep a strong
pressure gradient in place through Wednesday morning with
winds out of the northeast. By Thursday, high pressure
building in the Gulf will move towards the Mid-Atlantic
towards the end of the weekend with dry weather expected.
The movement of this high will result in northwest winds
gradually veering from the northwest around to the
northeast.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 756 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019/

AVIATION...
-RA will continue across FMY and RSW through 03Z-04Z with a
 brief shower not ruled out across other terminals through
 02Z as well. VFR is expected to remain across SRQ northward
 through the period, with MVFR to possible IFR cigs
 overnight around PGD, FMY, and RSW. NE to NNE winds will
 become gusty tomorrow afternoon, diminishing late
 afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  58  75  58  71 /  30  10  10   0
FMY  60  79  61  75 /  70  10  10   0
GIF  58  74  57  74 /  30  10  10   0
SRQ  59  76  59  71 /  30  10  10  10
BKV  56  74  53  71 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  60  73  62  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman
UPPER AIR...18/Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming