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000
FXUS62 KTBW 201804
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Friday)...
Upper ridging dominates the pattern over the east coast through the
short term period. The upper high shifts eastward by late Friday as
a weak tropical wave moves westward over southern Florida. On the
surface, high pressure over New England ridges south-southwest along
the eastern seaboard, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This
high pressure ridging combined with the tropical wave to the south
will keep a predominant easterly wind flow over the region. Daily
showers and storms will form along the east coast of Florida by late
morning, move westward over the inland areas through the afternoon
and evening hours with the highest coverage near the I-75 corridor
between 18-21Z each day. Daytime highs will be well above average
with highs in the low to mid 90`s region wide with heat indices
reaching 100-105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night - Thursday)...
Small weak TUTT in SE Gulf Friday Night slides further westward into
the Gulf of Mexico Sat/Sun while upper ridge from the W Atlantic
stretches back into the Deep South and FL into early next week.
Broad large scale upper trough now progged to stay over northern
tier of states while upper ridging builds over the Gulf and FL mid
to late next week.

At the surface, high pressure to remain stretched from the Mid
Atlantic to the N Gulf Coast region through the weekend. A weak low
pressure area is expected to form on an old frontal boundary in W
Atlantic late in the weekend and move towards the SE U.S. coast
early next week and dissipate through mid week as a cold front
sweeps into the Deep South. Sensible weather to continue warm and
humid late summertime conditions over the local area with afternoon
sea breezes producing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions early this afternoon with light ENE
steering flow delaying W Coast seabreeze with better coverage of
VCTS along coastal TAF sites into the evening hours for TEMPO gusty
winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBY restrictions may see short-lived IFR in
strongest storms. Then VFR all sites returning overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico will keep
an east-northeast wind flow over the gulf coast waters into
next week, with a weak sea breeze forming along the coast
each afternoon. No marine weather concerns are anticipated
with the exception of higher winds/seas and dangerous
lightning in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant atmospheric moisture will keep high humidity levels and
scattered rain showers and storms across the area for the next
several days which will preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  91  75  90 /  60  30   0  40
FMY  75  91  74  89 /  40  70  30  50
GIF  75  90  75  90 /  40  20  10  50
SRQ  76  90  75  89 /  60  50  20  40
BKV  75  91  73  90 /  50  20   0  50
SPG  78  91  78  90 /  60  30   0  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis