Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
806 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Dense IFR or worse fog is in place at most terminals this
morning. This should burn off/dissipate by 10AM, with some
low ceilings lingering through noon. Expecting the rain
today to remain to the north of the northern terminals...but
will monitor. Otherwise VFR through the afternoon and early
evening with gusty SSW winds. Then IFR fog is expected to
return across the area after midnight.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 352 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018/


SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)...
Series of shortwaves and vort maxes to quickly move through
the Deep South today into tonight with rounds of showers and
a few thunderstorms mainly over the Nature Coast. Frontal
boundary remains draped over central AL/GA today with
deepening low level southerly flow increasing mean layer
moisture and warm temps areawide.

On Tuesday, deepening trough from the Lower Mississippi
River Valley at 12Z swings over the FL Peninsula by 00Z with
significant upper support and mid level jet ejecting ahead
of trough axis. Surface storm system center to move through
the deep south with trailing cold front and pre frontal
band of convection moving from the Gulf through the area.
Several models and SPC indicate possibility for strong to
severe storms ahead of this system as well. But a few
limiting factor are expected to be present as well, such as
low-level lapse rates will not be very steep over much of
FL, the E Gulf shelf waters remain cool especially since
last weeks cold snap, current SSTs are 2-4 degrees below
seasonal averages, and the fact the computer models have
struggled to say the least with FL convection all winter
season. So, am not extremely confidence at this point, but
there remains a possible threat for a few damaging wind
gusts or isolated tornadoes with this system.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Tuesday night, the mid level trough is forecast to swing from the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico through northern Florida, pushing the
cold front south through southwest Florida and into the Florida
Straits. Any lingering showers or storms will dissipate and exit
southwest Florida early in the evening, with cooler and drier air
filling in behind the front under breezy west to northwest winds.
With clear skies and continued cold air advection, temperatures will
run below normal Wednesday through Friday morning, with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s, and morning lows from around 40 to the low

Friday through Saturday, surface high pressure will build in from
the northwest, with temperatures warming back up to near normal by
Saturday. On Sunday, another trough will swing through the eastern
seaboard, pushing a weak cold front into northern Florida. Although
this front does not look strong enough to bring a significant
temperature change to the area, a few showers will be possible over
the Nature Coast on Sunday.

Patchy dense field fog early this morning with IFR lcl LIFR
vsby/cigs lifting into MVFR conditions mid to late morning...VFR
AFT 17-18Z. S-SW winds increase in the afternoon.

Complex storm system to develop today and move through the region
Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms expected. SW winds increase
today reaching SCA levels Tuesday ahead of cold front. Strong
high pressure to build into the region with strong and gusty
NW winds and elevated choppy seas continuing hazardous marine
conditions. Pressure gradient to slightly weaken Thursday with
seas slow to subside. Improved marine conditions to end the
work week.

Abundant low level moisture and increasing rain chances today
and Tuesday. Strong cool and very dry high pressure to filter
into the region Wed-Fri. Will need to monitor how much rain
the area receives and how ERCs respond for possible red flag


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  69  77  59 /  20  20  70  10
FMY  82  69  81  62 /  10  10  50  30
GIF  84  68  83  56 /  30  10  70  20
SRQ  76  69  76  61 /  10  10  70  10
BKV  80  68  79  53 /  40  30  70  10
SPG  78  69  78  59 /  20  20  70  10


Gulf waters...None.



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