Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 221201
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
801 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms likely again today as the
atmosphere remains moist and nearly clear skies allow for maximum
daytime heating. Precipitable water remains near 2 inches, so some
locally heavy rainfall is likely. Any severe storms should be very
isolated with the primary threat being a brief strong wind gust
due to precipitation loading in rapidly building/decaying storms.

The low-level ridge axis will likely remain to our north for one
more day before retreating southeastward into the Atlantic
tonight and Tuesday. Expect primary storm motion to be from
southeast to northwest for most of our CWA, but perhaps becoming
more south to north or even southwest to northeast over the Nature
Coast. From the Tampa Bay area south, expect some initial
development along a west coast sea breeze early in the afternoon,
then more widespread activity moving in from the southeast during
the second half of the afternoon and perhaps into the early
evening hours. Since our flow is beginning to turn more southerly,
the axis of heaviest rains may line up a bit east of the I-75
corridor this afternoon. However, cold pools/outflow boundaries
will ultimately have the final say in who gets a ton of rain, and
who gets nearly nothing at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
Active summer-time pattern continues with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours.
Greatest concentration may be just east of PIE, TPA, and SRQ
today, but inland and southern terminals /LAL, PGD, RSW, FMY/ have
a better chance at seeing direct impacts with longer durations.
Will continue with VCTS for the 12Z package and evaluate need for
tempo groups with 18Z issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Active line of convection along old land breeze boundary continues
about 30 to 60 miles offshore of Venice southward to Naples. This
should gradually diminish as focus for storms shifts to land with
heating.

A pattern change will take place starting Tuesday and continuing
through the end of the week when southwesterly flow takes over as
the surface ridge axis slides south and east. We will see more
shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters during the late
night and early morning hours, especially north of Tarpon Springs.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  50  20  50  60
FMY  92  75  90  76 /  70  30  50  20
GIF  93  74  92  74 /  70  30  70  20
SRQ  90  75  90  76 /  50  20  50  40
BKV  91  73  90  74 /  60  20  50  60
SPG  90  76  90  77 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt


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