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000
FXUS62 KTBW 120732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A short wave over North Florida which is enhancing off some Gulf
Showers will drift south into Central Florida.  This will give us
another day of high pops this afternoon.  The upper trough from
northeast of Bermuda to Eastern Cuba and into the Caribbean will
drift slowly to the west the next couple days, eventually ending up
from around Bermuda to the northern Bahamas across western Cuba and
into the northwest Caribbean.  You would think that being on the
backside of an upper trough would cause some upper convergence and
subsidence over the state and therefore decreasing POPs, however all
of the guidance says otherwise and the fact that there are fairly
numerous showers on the Bahamas radar composite make me believe the
guidance.

A deep layer trough will dig into the Mississippi Valley this
weekend.  The surface ridge that has been over us the last few days
will stay over us producing weak flow for a couple more days until
the digging deep trough lowers surface pressures in the Southeast
U.S. nudging our ridge southward. This will put us in a different
regime favoring morning showers at least north of the Bay area.

Early next week the longwave trough over the Eastern U.S. will
absorb the upper trough just east of Florida.  A deep longwave will
set up in the gulf, lowering surface pressures and pushing the
surface ridge further to the south and east.  The entire area will
be in a westerly flow regime by that time.  It appears the surface
front, which should be the focus of heavy rain will stall to our
northwest, however the pattern would favor plenty of showers
developing in the Eastern Gulf with its water temperatures in the
upper 80s and low 90s and moving onshore West Florida.


 &&

.AVIATION...

The pattern remains the same.  Afternoon thunderstorms will create
local areas of IFR and MVFR conditions.  In general expect VFR
condition however also expect amendments as thunderstorms impact
areas. Generally light winds with an afternoon seabreeze except
stronger winds near pm thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds, no swells, the only issues in the marine forecast will
be gusty winds and high seas in and near afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High humidity and light winds near the surface and aloft will
continue widespread rainfall the next few days. Afternoon
thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning.


&&



.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  77  92  78 /  70  30  60  20
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  70  30  60  20
GIF  92  76  92  75 /  80  30  70  10
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  92  74  92  74 /  80  30  70  20
SPG  92  78  92  78 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...04/Sobien
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming