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000
FXUS62 KTBW 162338
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
738 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.UPDATE...
Quite a contrast this evening compared to yesterday evening where we
had multiple storms inland. This evening the dry air aloft has
helped to keep the showers and storms at bay, at least for our area.
No changes were made to the forecast at this time, everything seems
to be on track

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to remain through the period. The only
concern, mainly for LAL, is the possibility of fog developing
before sunrise.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 254 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough axis begins to push over Florida allowing a
drier airmass to settle over the area decreasing rain chances for
this afternoon. However, a couple showers developing inland is not
out of the question along the seabreeze boundaries. Cooler
temperatures aloft could support hail development if the storms
do become active.

The aforementioned upper level trough will begin to flatten Tuesday
allowing for subsidence and more dry air. This, coupled with high
pressure at the surface should keep the POPS low until Friday.
Isolated showers due to the sea breeze convergence is still a
possibility in the afternoon each day.

Temperatures this week near record highs, especially for the inland
counties. Inland areas could see mid to upper 90s throughout the
week, while coastal regions could be upper 80s to lower 90s.
Temperatures in the evening will run in the lower 70s for most
areas.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail though the period. Winds should remain out of
the west and diminish in the evening. With just a few clouds and
light winds, KLAL could see some shallow ground fog creating brief
impacts particularly near sunrise.

MARINE...
Conditions should generally remain dry for the next few days,
especially along the coast. Winds will be mostly out of the west,
with breezy conditions each afternoon before diminishing in the
evening. However,no headlines are anticipated at this time for
coastal waters.

FIRE WEATHER...
Lower RH values could occur inland the next couple days as the drier
air settles in. However no red flag conditions are expected at
this time, as the winds remain below 15 kts. Isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon could still be a concern for inland
counties.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  91  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  72  92  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
GIF  70  95  73  95 /  10  20  10  20
SRQ  72  87  73  89 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  67  92  68  95 /   0  20   0  20
SPG  75  87  76  88 /   0  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow:
For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...49/Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...29/Delerme