Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 201425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1025 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...TOR Watch 17 now in effect through 23Z for portions of
the area...

Complex storm system is moving into the area this morning,
and will cause showers and thunderstorms to move through the
area from north to south through the late morning and
afternoon, exiting the area this evening to the south. There
is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms with this
system, with damaging winds and hail the main concern,
though the possibility of an isolated tornado also cannot
be ruled out. The low clouds that were in place across much
of the area this morning are starting to break up and will
enhance the instability over the land areas for later this
afternoon as we get more heating. And now TOR Watch 17 will
be in place from Sarasota, Hardee, and Polk counties north
through 23z/7PM tonight.

Conditions will become breezy for this afternoon as well,
with the Lake Wind Advisory, Rip Current Risk, and Small
Craft Advisory continuing unchanged. Have adjusted high
temperatures a bit for this afternoon, and removed the
morning fog. Will update the zones to reflect the changes
and add the watch headline.


Low ceilings around 500-1000ft are the main concern this
morning, with some patchy MVFR to IFR fog also occurring.
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from north
to south, beginning late this morning and continuing through
the evening hours. Winds will be breezy with high gusts
through the day. Rain should move out and winds calm a bit
after 01z, with VFR conditions returning.


TOR Watch 17 will be in place for the northern and central
waters including Tampa Bay through 23z/7PM this evening for
the possibility of severe thunderstorms and waterspouts. In
addition, winds and seas will be increasing through the
afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect as well for
the northern and central offshore waters, expanding across
all waters for this evening. Will be getting the headline in
for the TOR watch with the update, but otherwise little
change as the current forecast is on track.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  58  68  49 /  80  10   0   0
FMY  82  62  73  50 /  70  40   0   0
GIF  83  54  72  46 /  80  20   0   0
SRQ  79  61  69  51 /  80  10   0   0
BKV  80  52  68  40 /  80  10   0   0
SPG  78  59  68  53 /  80  10   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.



UPPER AIR...63/Jillson
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.