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000
FXUS62 KTBW 121721
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1221 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

.AVIATION...
Some MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys from some low clouds and fog
may impact the terminals between 09-13Z Tuesday morning,
otherwise VFR is expected during the next 24 hours.
Southeast to south winds around 10 knots this afternoon
will diminish to 5 knots or less after 02Z tonight, then
increase to 6 to 8 knots after 15Z on Tuesday.


&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 917 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018/

..NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY...

UPDATE...
A stationary front draped across the southern Florida
peninsula and southeast Gulf early this morning will lift
back to the north as a warm front through the remainder of
the day as low pressure develops along the lower Texas
coast. As the warm front lifts northward a very warm and
humid day is on tap as a southeast to southerly wind flow
develops across the forecast area. The increasingly moist
air mass combined with daytime heating will likely support
some isolated showers and even a few storms across the area
during the afternoon given steepening lapse rates and
instability depicted in the model sounding data, which is
also in line with the latest hi-res convective model
output. In addition, temperatures will climb to well above
normal with some near record high temperatures possible as
readings climb into the mid and upper 80s with perhaps even
a few readings approaching 90 over interior locations. For
more information on the record highs for today see the
climate section below. Will send out a mid morning update to
add thunder mention into the grids/zones, otherwise the
rest of the forecast is in good shape with no other changes
planned.


MARINE...
A stationary front across the southeast Gulf waters early
this morning will lift back to the north as a warm front
through the remainder of the day with east winds in the
10 to 15 knot range near shore and around 15 knots offshore
this morning becoming southeast to south during the
afternoon. Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes
planned for the late morning update around 10 AM.


CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for today.

Tampa...........88 set back in 2008
Lakeland........89 set back in 1986
Sarasota........88 set back in 2002
FT Myers........91 set back in 1979
ST Petersburg...87 set back in 1986



TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...57/McMichael