656
FXUS62 KTBW 270003
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Conditionally unstable atmosphere, deep shallow CAPE, PCPW values
around 2 inches, and weak boundary layer flow has led to numerous
showers and thunderstorms today which produced locally heavy rain
due to their slow movement. Main continuing activity is stemming
from boundary collisions from earlier convection. Most activity
will dissipate by midnight, however a few storms may persist past
midnight where lingering boundaries are superimposed in regions
that did not see convection and atmosphere has available CAPE for
shower/thunderstorms development. Skies will become mostly clear
late tonight. Similiar pattern on Saturday as weak onshore
boundary layer flow will allow initial convective initiation along
the coastal counties along the west coast sea breeze boundary
during the late morning/early afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon
with a trough swinging through the northeast U.S. and surface high
pressure extending across the peninsula. Overall light wind flow
today will lead to additional convection developing along the sea
breeze boundary collision over the interior and then slowly drifting
back westward through the rest of the evening.

For Saturday and Sunday, high pressure aloft shifts west as
troughing moves over the Atlantic. A surface boundary will move into
northern Florida, pushing the Atlantic ridge axis farther south. A
bit of a complicated setup, but add in higher moisture and we should
see increased storm activity both days.

Global models continue to indicate troughing continuing over the
state into early next week with a relatively weak surface pattern.
Higher moisture is also forecast to remain and all of this supports
a forecast of continued higher rain chances, with storms dominated
by sea breeze and outflow boundaries due to the lack of steering
flow. The Atlantic ridge axis then builds back in for Wednesday
through the end of the week, with a southeast flow pattern
returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Main impact area for showers/thunderstorms this evening will be
over southwest Florida vcnty PGD/FMY/RSW, and may briefly impact
terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. VFR conditions are
expected at all terminals after midnight. Scattered/numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday during the late
morning/early afternoon hours with areas of MVFR CIGs and LCL IFR
VSBYs which may impact all terminals across west central and
southwest Florida for an hour or two.


&&

.MARINE...
Fairly light southeast to south winds will continue through the
weekend with a turn onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. No headlines are expected, though scattered thunderstorms
are possible each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  40  70  40  70
FMY  77  94  78  94 /  50  60  20  60
GIF  76  95  76  94 /  50  70  30  70
SRQ  77  93  77  93 /  40  70  40  70
BKV  74  94  74  93 /  40  70  40  70
SPG  81  92  81  93 /  40  70  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis