Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 170735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
335 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
High pressure ridge axis has pushed south to across south
FL this morning as a trough settles into the region to the
north of the state. Light S/SW flow is in place with widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the
coastal waters and just along the coast. Winds will become
more westerly and increase in speed through the afternoon,
with storms shifting inland through the afternoon and
exiting to the east coast in the evening. Showers and storms
will reform over the coastal waters overnight as winds
become light again. The trough will continue to settle south
approaching north FL through Wednesday, with the SW/W flow
increasing again for Wednesday afternoon, and coastal storms
shifting inland through the afternoon. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s each day, with lows tonight in the
mid 70s inland to around 80 along the coast.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)...
Starting out the long term period, zonal upper flow persists
over southern Florida as sub-tropical ridging from the
Atlantic extends west over southern Florida and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, the flow is more
amplified with troughing extending south-southwest along the
eastern seaboard and into the central Gulf of Mexico. There
will be a slight weakening in the trough and shift eastward
on Thursday and Friday as upper ridging moves through the
Tennessee River Valley, but sub-tropical ridging will remain
over the Bahamas and southern Florida. Late Friday into
Saturday, the ridge up north will weaken as a closed upper
low over the western Great Lakes and associated troughing
moves southeast. This trough will become the dominant upper
feature through the weekend and into early next week causing
the sub-tropical ridge east of Florida to shift farther

On the surface, high pressure east of Bermuda ridges
southwest over the Bahamas, southern Florida and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, an area of low
pressure sits off the New England coastline and extends a
frontal boundary southwest over the Carolinas then westward
to Louisiana. With the high pressure near Bermuda continuing
to ridge southwest over south Florida and high pressure
over the Great Lakes, this front will stall out over
northern Florida through the weekend. Winds are expected to
remain out of the west through southwest through the period,
which will allow for abundant moisture to be advected over
the region, with the highest PW values (2.0-2.4 inches) over
the Nature Coast and (1.25- 2.0 inches) from Tampa Bay
southward. Higher PW values combined with the proximity to
the front over northern Florida will produce the highest
POPs (50-70 percent) farther north along the Nature Coast
with lower POPs (20-50 percent) expected from Tampa Bay
southward. Temperatures will remain warm and muggy with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.


SW flow setting up with a few morning coastal showers
becoming early afternoon thunderstorms and winds becoming
more westerly and increasing to around 8kts. VFR conditions
will prevail but MVFR to IFR will be possible in any storms.
Storms then push inland and diminish in the evening, with
winds becoming light and variable after sunset.


SW flow will generally be in place through the period as
high pressure continues across south FL and a trough settles
across north FL for the week. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible each day, mainly in the overnight and
morning hours. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
cautionary thresholds through the period.


No concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  79  89  78 /  50  50  60  40
FMY  92  77  92  77 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  90  80  89  79 /  50  50  60  40
BKV  90  75  89  76 /  60  50  60  40
SPG  89  80  88  79 /  50  50  60  50


Gulf waters...None.



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