Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 242348
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
648 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing drier air
aloft filling into northern Florida behind a cold front that is
on track to move through the forecast area overnight through
Saturday morning. A couple bands of showers currently crossing the
coastal waters are expected to mostly dissipate as they come
onshore overnight, although brief showers over land will still be
possible, particularly right along the coast. With southerly to
southwesterly surface flow ahead of this front, moisture pooling
will lead to areas of low status and perhaps a few patches of fog
developing just ahead of the front, but skies will then clear out
from north to south through Saturday morning as drier air fills in
behind the front.

Some minor adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next
few hours to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast
looks ontrack and no significant changes are planned for the
evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers moving east across the Gulf of Mexico are
expected to dissipate before reaching the Tampa Bay area
terminals, although a few showers mainly in the vicinity of KPIE,
KTPA, and KSRQ are possible through around 03z. A cold front will
pass through the area during the overnight and early morning
hours, with winds turning to northwesterly behind the front.
Periods of MVFR ceilings or perhaps some patchy fog are possible
for a few hours around the frontal passage, but VFR conditions
will then fill in from north to south by around 14z, and should
hold through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move southeast through the coastal waters
overnight, with isolated to scattered showers gradually
diminishing by Saturday morning. Winds will turn to northwesterly
and northerly behind the front, generally holding around 15 knots
or less. An area of low pressure will develop over the western
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and move east into the waters through
Monday, with chances of showers Sunday night and Monday and
variable winds. High pressure will build back in Monday night and
Tuesday, allowing marine conditions to quiet down again.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  56  68  48  67 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  73  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  55  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  58  70  46  69 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  50  67  38  67 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  58  68  52  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Fleming


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