Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
565
FXUS62 KTBW 281915
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

The weakening frontal boundary continues to drift south into north
Florida with some deeper moisture south of it leading to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. However, with the
westerly flow in place this convection will continue to move east
across the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula,
with the coastal counties remaining mostly dry. This boundary will
settle across the region Wednesday with high pressure to the
north helping to bring some drier air back into the area. This
drier air along with the northwest flow will keep any rain chance
confined to the southern interior and southwest Florida with near
record high temperatures and dry weather elsewhere.

The rather hot and dry weather will continue Thursday with the
flow becoming more northeasterly. The rain chances will remain
only across the southern interior and southwest Florida. For
Friday a reinforcing front will move south into north Florida with
deeper moisture setting up across the area. This along with an
east to southeast flow should favor scattered mainly afternoon and
evening convection across West Central and Southwest Florida. The
boundary will move through the area as high pressure moves across
the eastern U.S. and out into the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend
setting up an increased east to northeast flow. Should still be
enough moisture for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and
evening convection each day into early next week with temperatures
closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move east away from the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR
conditions prevailing through tonight. Westerly winds around
10 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon will diminish and
become light northwest later this evening and overnight

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

A weak frontal boundary will stall out over the waters tonight
with some drier air moving for Wednesday and Thursday. Late in the
week through the weekend high pressure will build south pushing
the front further south and setting up an increased east to
northeast flow with better chances for showers and thunderstorms
returning. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria
outside of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

A frontal boundary will stall out across the region later today and
tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing over the
interior into early this evening. Drier air will move in for
Wednesday and Thursday, with critically low relative humidity
values expected over inland areas, but wind speeds will remain
less than 15 mph so Red Flag conditions are expected. Dispersion
values will be rather high the next few afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  95  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  77  95  74  97 /   0  20  10  20
GIF  74  97  71  97 /  10  10   0  10
SRQ  77  94  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  96  66  98 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  81  94  79  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Close