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000
FXUS62 KTBW 201358
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
858 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

...WINDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...
...SHARPLY COLDER TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
A cold front now across the southern peninsula early this
morning will exit to the south of the state during the
afternoon. Brisk west to northwest winds in the wake of the
front and strong cold air advection will make for a much
cooler day compared to yesterday with max temperatures being
met this morning, with slowly falling temperatures expected
during the afternoon. The strong cold air advection is
supporting considerable post-frontal cold air strato-cu
clouds over the adjacent Gulf waters with these clouds
expected to continue to move onshore within the brisk west-
northwest flow through the day resulting in mostly cloudy
skies. By later in the day drier air moving into the region
should help to begin to erode these clouds with gradual
clearing expected late in the afternoon and evening hours.
With the strong and gusty wind expected to continue through
the remainder of the day will keep the Lake Wind and High
Surf advisories in place with very hazardous boating conditions
expected on area lakes and over the Gulf waters. Current
forecast is on track with no morning update required at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Considerable post-frontal cold air strato-cu clouds in the
MVFR range will continue to impact the terminal sites
through late afternoon with VFR returning thereafter. West-
Northwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with frequent
gusts to 25 to 30 knots can be expected through 00Z. After
00Z Northwest to north winds will diminish to 7 to 10 knots
with skies becoming clear overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Solid small craft advisory winds and seas are in place
across all of the Gulf waters this morning, with these
conditions are expected to continue through early Monday.
Very hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected
with large breaking waves and a high risk of rip currents
along area beaches. Ongoing forecast has a good handle on
all of this so no changes are expected in the next forecast
update around 10 AM.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Polk-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn