Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
616 FXUS62 KTBW 051751 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 151 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 - Thunderstorm coverage and rain totals will increase today and Tuesday, with rainy conditions continuing through the rest of the week. - Marine winds over the northeastern Gulf will increase late Tuesday through the rest of the week, creating hazardous boating conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Cold front is currently draped over the Florida Georgia border. This front will slowly drift south over Central Florida by tomorrow afternoon. This front will be stuck in the state over the rest of the week. This will keep overcast skies and humid conditions across the CWA. We will see high chances of rain through the week but this will not be like our typical summer time convection. The thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80`s. This means temperatures will be around the same as water temps resulting in no real seabreeze setting up. Instead it will be more of an overrunning effect with on and off light to moderate showers through the day (and night). Some isolated storms can`t be ruled out but this should be mainly a rain event. The biggest impacts will be felt on Wednesday and Thursday. Total rainfall through the rest of the week will be between 2-4 inches. This front will finally lift north by the weekend. This will result in us returning to a more summertime weather pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 We are watching a slow moving cold front which will push into north Florida this afternoon and over Central FLorida by the overnight hours. Best chance of storms today will be in Central Florida. We could see some morning showers pushing in from the Gulf tomorrow morning thanks to the front. Wind will primary be below 10 knots with VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 A front will stall over Central Florida tonight. This will bring cloudy skies and widespread showers for most of the week. Winds will remain out of an easterly direction around 5 to 10 knots. The only exception will be our off shore northern waters where winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday and Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Deeper layer moisture in across the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through the week. We will not have any major fire weather concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 76 84 74 / 50 40 90 70 FMY 90 76 87 75 / 20 40 60 40 GIF 91 74 87 74 / 60 60 90 60 SRQ 88 75 86 74 / 30 40 70 70 BKV 89 72 84 70 / 50 40 90 60 SPG 87 76 85 75 / 40 40 80 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close