Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 100803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
303 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Broad upper/mid level troughing is currently sprawled across much
of the continental US, with weak ridging centered over the
Florida Straits. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge axis
extends from the Atlantic across the central Florida Peninsula
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while a cold front associated
with the upper level troughing is pushing into the Gulf Coast
region. This pattern is setting up light southerly low level flow
over Florida, setting up a warm and moist environment. This low
level moisture is already leading to some patchy fog over the
interior, which should continue to expand in coverage through
just after sunrise this morning. Although the southerly flow is
fairly weak, some pockets of sea fog cannot be completely ruled
out today and tonight. Otherwise, warm and pleasant conditions
will hold today, with only isolated showers expected in the
afternoon, mainly over the interior.

The front will slowly move southeast through the forecast area
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing increased rain coverage and winds
increasing and turning to northeasterly behind the front. With the
slow forward motion of the front, most of the area will see
chances for patchy fog again Wednesday morning, although
increasing cloud cover and wind speeds will prevent more
widespread fog from developing. Since the front will not make a
quick or clean passage, the only areas to see cooler or less humid
air will be mainly over the Nature Coast, with well above normal
temperatures remaining from around Interstate 4 south.

A shortwave trough swinging through the northern Gulf of Mexico
Thursday night and Friday will help develop a weak surface low,
that will lift northeast into Florida Friday, dragging another
weak cold front through the Florida Peninsula Friday night. This
will result in more showers expected Friday and Saturday, and
slightly cooler temperatures Saturday night and Sunday, although
temperatures will remain above normal for mid December. High
pressure will fill in Sunday night and Monday, allowing
temperatures to begin to climb back up yet again.


Some patchy fog or MVFR ceilings will be possible through just
after sunrise this morning, most likely around KLAL and KPGD. Then
mostly VFR conditions will hold through the rest of the day,
although occasional MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.


High pressure will ridge across the Florida Peninsula and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with light winds and seas continuing.
Deep moisture ahead of an approaching weak cold front will allow
for the possibility of sea fog reducing visibility, mainly over
the coastal waters off the Nature Coast. This front will slowly
sag southeast through the area Wednesday and Thursday, with winds
turning to northeasterly and increasing to near advisory levels
behind the front, as well as bringing a few showers into the area.

An area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico
late in the week and lift northeast into northern Florida Friday,
dragging another cold front through the waters through early
Saturday. This system will bring additional showers, and perhaps
another period of cautionary or advisory level winds and seas.


Relative humidity is not expected to drop to critical levels
through the next several days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  67  80  63 /  10  20  30  10
FMY  84  67  83  67 /  10  10  20  20
GIF  85  65  82  65 /  20  20  40  20
SRQ  83  66  82  65 /  10  20  20  10
BKV  84  62  80  59 /  10  20  30  10
SPG  82  67  80  65 /  10  20  20  10


Gulf waters...None.



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