Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281935
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...Above Normal Temperatures Expected Through Monday...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Just enough moisture combined with daytime heating may help to set
off a few showers over Polk, Hardee, Desoto, and Highlands counties
later this afternoon through early this evening, otherwise warm and
humid weather will prevail. As for the rest of the forecast deep
layered ridging will remain in place across the Gulf and Florida
through Monday night with near record warmth and humid conditions
continuing. During Tuesday the upper level and surface ridge will
sink south as a short wave trough and attendant weak surface low
moves east from the lower MS valley east-northeast across the
northern Gulf coast and southeastern States through Tuesday night.
This system and its attendant frontal boundary will bring increasing
chances for showers (Pops 20-40%) from the Tampa Bay area north into
the Nature coast on Tuesday, with a slight chance of showers (Pops
20% or less) across the remainder of the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain above normal through Monday with lows tonight in the mid
to upper 60s, with daytime highs on Monday again climbing into the
lower 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s inland. On Tuesday
an increase in clouds and rain chances associated with the front
should support lower temperatures with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s north, and lower to mid 80s central and south.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night - Sunday)...
The recent ridging aloft that had been over the area has been
shunted southward as a low/short wave trough traverses the
southeast corner of the nation and ejects out over the Atlantic
late Wed. The low or S/W trough strings a frontal boundary
initially along the northern Gulf coast that eventually sweeps
down across FL Wed but with limited moisture and lift. Ongoing
isolated scattered showers Tue night will end Wed and mainly be
confined to central and southern counties. Near seasonal
temperatures Wed fall off a bit by Thu.

Starting Thu ridging...both aloft and surface...builds over
the US plains then slides east and flattens as a closed low aloft
the Four Corners region moves into the Gulf coastal states and
dampens out as it merges into broad troughiness over the northeast
states. This troughiness...from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to the
northeast Gulf of Mexico tracks across the eastern seaboard
during Sat then offshore Sun. A few embedded impulses in the south
end of the troughiness will help spin up a surface trough/boundary
in the east Gulf Fri night that crosses the state Sat and exits
to the Atlantic Sun. These two features will support showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two when they move through.
Temperatures run on the cool side of normal through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some brief MVFR Cigs/Vsbys may impact the terminal sites between
09-13Z Monday morning as some low clouds and patchy fog develops
over the region, otherwise VFR is expected during the next 24
hours. Southwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with a few
higher gusts the remainder of the afternoon will become southeast
to south and diminish to 4 to 6 knots after 01Z tonight, then
becoming south to southwest and increasing to 8 to 12 knots after
14Z on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure from the western Atlantic extending west across the
central peninsula will maintain southeast to south winds in the 10
to 15 knot range with seas of 2-3 feet tonight through Monday
night. The warm and humid air mass overriding the cooler Gulf
waters may support some patchy sea fog late tonight through Monday
night. A weak cold front will approach and move south through the
waters late Tuesday through Wednesday with some showers along and
ahead of it. In the wake of the front high pressure will build in
with northwest to north winds expected across the waters during
Thursday, then becoming northeast on Friday. Wind and seas should
remain below 15 knots and 5 feet through the period with no
headlines expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue into
Monday as high pressure remains in control, with some late night
and early morning patchy fog possible. Humidity values will
remain above critical levels through the rest of the weekend and
into early next week with no Red Flag conditions expected. A weak
cold front will bring a chance of showers to the region during
Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by slightly cooler and drier
weather with lower humidity levels during Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  83  68  82 /  10   0  10  20
FMY  69  86  68  86 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  69  88  68  83 /  20   0  10  30
SRQ  70  83  68  82 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  64  86  62  82 /  10   0  10  30
SPG  70  81  69  79 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude


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