Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 091808
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
208 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today - Monday)...
Nearly flat ridging resides aloft the Gulf of Mexico region as
western Atlantic high pressure stretches westward across FL.
Southerly 1000-700 MB flow this afternoon becomes southerly by Mon
afternoon and drags in some higher moisture. Model PWAT values
around 1.5 inches or less today increase to 1.5 inches on Mon...but
with swaths of 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the interior.

The increasing moisture along with daytime heating and sea breeze
circulations will support a slight chance to a chance of showers or
thunderstorms. These will favor the southern and central interior
areas this afternoon and again Mon afternoon. The highest
coverage is expected well inland. Temperatures continue to run
above normal. Highs Mon will reach the mid 90s inland with heat
indices at 100.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night - Sunday)...
At the start of the period zonal flow aloft will be in place across
the Gulf and Florida with surface high pressure from the western
Atlantic across the central Florida peninsula, while a frontal
boundary stalls out across north Florida. Diurnal sea breeze driven
convection during Tuesday afternoon will end Tuesday evening with
partly cloudy skies expected overnight. On Wednesday sufficient low
level moisture combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze
circulations will support another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area, with the highest rain
chances (Pops 30-50%) focusing along and east of the I-75 corridor
along the sea breeze merger during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

During Thursday chances for showers and storms will increase a bit
(Pops 40-60%) as a series of short waves move across the region and
the aforementioned front sags south through the forecast area with
scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Rain chances will
end across the Nature Coast on Friday as drier air filters in behind
the front with isolated to scattered (Pop 20-30%) showers and storms
chances continuing across central and southern zones. During Friday
night into Saturday rain chances will end across central/southern
areas as the front moves to the south of the region with pleasant
dry weather expected through Sunday as high pressure builds in from
the north.

Temperatures will run slightly above normal through the period with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with daytime highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, except slightly lower values (mid to
upper 80s) on Thursday with the increased cloud cover and best rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
09/18Z TAFs. VFR. SKC is giving way to CU/SC under SCT CI. SW FL
aerodromes could see ISOLD TSRA/FEW CB BTWN 20-01Z. Anticipate some
low ST late night but will keep FEW-SCT. S winds become SSW to SW
and gusty this afternoon...back and diminish over night...then
increase some Mon morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure stretches across the waters through midweek
with light to gentle winds and afternoon sea breezes. A cold front
moves across the east Gulf late in the week then high pressure
settles in for next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture slowly increases during the week...precluding any low RH
concerns and supporting mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated high dispersion values are expected Mon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  90  76  91 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  72  92  73  93 /   0  20  10  10
GIF  72  94  72  94 /  10  20  10  20
SRQ  72  88  72  89 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  66  91  67  91 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  76  88  76  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael


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