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000
FXUS62 KTBW 061816
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Drier air remains over most of the area as a surface high dwells off
the east coast of Florida. This afternoon, some moisture will begin
to fill in from the south allowing for an increase of showers
Sarasota and south. The high pressure will begin to drift further
into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary begins to droop into the SE
U.S. The E/SE flow will gradually shift more W/SW as the week goes
on, and this will begin to push rain coverage to the interior of the
state later in the week. Rain chances hang around 40-50% for coastal
areas, and 60-70% inland through the end of the week as the frontal
boundary drifts towards and into Florida. Behind the front, drier
air filters in decreasing rain chances for the weekend. Rain
coverage will help moderate temperatures through the remainder of
the week. However, with the drier air this weekend, temperatures
will increase to the low to mid 90s with heat indices possibly
reaching 100 in some areas. Models are hinting at another system
early next week, increasing rain chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

E/SE flow will begin to shift more W/SW as the sea breeze develops.
Showers and storms should be limited to PGD, RSW, and FMY later this
afternoon into the evening. Winds become light and variable over
night before increasing out of the W/SW Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Flow remains out of the light out of the east through Wednesday then
begins to shift and become more westerly while also slightly
increasing. Main concern on the waters will be the possibility
for afternoon/evening thudnerstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The lower RH values of today will increase tomorrow and remain
above critical values through the remainder of the week. No other
major fire weather concerns through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  75  87 /  20  50  50  50
FMY  73  90  75  90 /  50  50  60  70
GIF  70  90  71  89 /  20  70  40  70
SRQ  72  88  75  88 /  30  50  50  60
BKV  68  89  70  88 /  20  50  40  40
SPG  76  85  77  85 /  30  40  50  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle