190
FXUS62 KTBW 250038
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
738 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Last really frigidly cold night areawide ahead of the much
anticipated warming trend later this weekend.

Large dome of high pressure settles over the region tonight with a
frigid Arctic airmass over the FL Peninsula. Clear skies and some
decoupling of the winds especially over N FL will allow for
radiational cooling to drop temps into the mid-upper 20s in the N
Nature Coast for several hours with sub freezing temps extending
southward into Pasco Co with lighter winds. But generally from the
Tampa Bay area into SW FL winds are expected to remain more mixed
with a weaker inversion, so low temps should remain above
freezing, but these winds will create low wind chills values into
the mid 30s. These conditions are in line with latest freeze and
cold weather products. Minor updates to decrease overnight low
temp grids with latest probabilistic guidance and 00Z obs data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with clearing skies and N winds at 5-10
kts tonight shifting NE Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

One final surge of colder air will continue through tonight as a
shortwave trough axis swings through the area and helps to maintain
a deep low level northerly flow in place. With this final round
of cold air advection, very dry air will spread into the region
with dewpoints mostly in the 20s in the wake of the passage of the
shortwave trough and this will set the stage for a cold night
ahead with many locations expected to dip to the coldest temperatures
of the entire past week. The entirety of the Nature Coast should
be below freezing in the mid/upper 20s where a Freeze Warning will
be in effect overnight and temperatures will fall into the 30s
for the remainder of the region with perhaps the exception of the
immediate coastal areas that may only drop into the low 40s. When
factoring in the relatively steady 5-10 mph northerly wind across
mainly central and southern portions of the forecast area, this
will put wind chill values into the 20s and low 30s and thus, a
Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM EST for
the reminder of west central and southwest Florida. In addition,
areas of patchy frost can`t be ruled out in much of the areas in
the Cold Weather Advisory but wind speeds may remain elevated
enough and T/Td spread may remain large enough to prevent frost
development from being widespread. However, sheltered areas will
likely have the best chance of at least some frost potential
tonight despite these potentially limiting factors.

As previously mentioned, tonight`s round of cold air advection
should be of the final shot of cooler air for the remainder of the
forecast period as surface high pressure slides off the southeast
US and gradual air mass modification occurs throughout the weekend
and into next week. That said, there may be a need for frost
headlines for northern portions of the forecast area Saturday
night as T/Td spreads will be much lower than tonight with
moisture returning to the area as low level flow becomes more
easterly so this will need to be monitored. Otherwise, the need
for additional cold weather headlines greatly decreases by Sunday
as high temperatures return to near normal values for the
afternoon, though perhaps most will be a couple degrees below
normal values. However, the warming trend continues into next week
as high pressure remains in full control across the region with
mostly a zonal flow aloft. In fact, temperatures should return to
above normal by Tuesday through late week as high reach the 70s
and eventually 80s for at least southern areas by the end of the
forecast period. In addition, given the influence of high pressure
and a zonal flow aloft, the entire forecast period is generally
expected to be dry with just some very low PoPs in the forecast by
late week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north, but
any activity associated with this FROPA looks to be light at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Breezy northerly winds will continue through tonight with wind
speeds expected to reach over 20 kts at times across southern
marine zones so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect into Saturday
morning. Marine conditions are then expected to improve for the
remainder of the weekend as high pressure moves in from the north
with winds shifting to the northeast on Saturday. There may be a
brief period of small craft exercise caution into Saturday early
afternoon but otherwise decreasing wind speeds and subsiding seas
are expected throughout the weekend. Light and variable winds and
seas 1 ft or less is then expected by next week as the center of
the high pressure system builds over the area with no
precipitation expected throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

Elevated fire danger continues through tonight for most interior
areas due to a dry air mass in place and minimum RH values
reaching or possibly falling below critical levels at times.
However, red flag conditions are not anticipated due to wind
speeds remaining below criteria. Deeper moisture does begin to
start moving back into the area this weekend but some critically
low RH values may occur across the northern Nature Coast on
Saturday, though red flag headlines are once again not
anticipated. Higher humidity values then develop by late weekend
and into next week with decreasing fire danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  35  62  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  37  69  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  35  64  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  36  65  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  28  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  41  61  49  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Sumter.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt