Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
125 FXXX10 KWNP 181231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 18-Sep 20 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 18-Sep 20 2024 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 20 00-03UT 4.00 2.33 1.33 03-06UT 2.33 3.00 1.33 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 1.67 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.67 18-21UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 18-Sep 20 2024 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 20 S1 or greater 15% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) levels on 18-20 Sep. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 18-Sep 20 2024 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 20 R1-R2 55% 55% 50% R3 or greater 20% 15% 10% Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) activity on 18-19 Sep. There is a decreasing chance for R1 or greater blackouts on 20 Sep.