Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
381 FXXX10 KWNP 171231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale G4). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 00-03UT 7.67 (G4) 2.67 2.33 03-06UT 6.67 (G3) 2.33 3.00 06-09UT 5.33 (G1) 2.33 2.33 09-12UT 6.00 (G2) 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 3.67 2.00 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms were observed on 17 Sep due to CME influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 S1 or greater 99% 50% 10% Rationale: An S1 (Minor) radiation storm is in progress at the time of this writing. There is a chance for S1 conditions for 18 Sep, followed by a slight chance on 19 Sep. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 17-Sep 19 2024 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19 R1-R2 55% 45% 40% R3 or greater 15% 10% 10% Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely on 17 Sep. There is a decreasing chance for R1 or greater blackouts on 18-19 Sep.