Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
581 FXXX10 KWNP 201231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 20-Sep 22 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 20-Sep 22 2024 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 00-03UT 1.33 1.67 2.33 03-06UT 1.33 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 1.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 1.00 3.00 2.00 12-15UT 1.00 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 0.67 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 0.67 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 1.67 2.33 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2024 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm on 20-22 Sep. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2024 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 R1-R2 45% 45% 45% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts on 20-22 Sep.