Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
138 FXXX10 KWNP 220031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2024 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 00-03UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2024 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2024 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 R1-R2 30% 30% 30% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 22-24 Sep.