Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
540 FXXX10 KWNP 121231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 12-Jun 14 2024 is 2.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 12-Jun 14 2024 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 00-03UT 1.33 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 0.67 1.33 1.67 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 1.67 1.33 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 12-Jun 14 2024 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 S1 or greater 75% 5% 5% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation levels on 12 Jun. Levels should begin to tapper off by 13 Jun, and eventually return to near background levels by 14 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 12-Jun 14 2024 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 R1-R2 25% 25% 25% R3 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 14 Jun.