Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
908 FXXX10 KWNP 150031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 00-03UT 1.33 4.00 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 3.67 1.67 06-09UT 2.00 3.33 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 3.33 2.00 12-15UT 2.67 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.67 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.67 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 3.67 2.00 3.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 14 2024 0432 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-Minor Radio Blackouts through 17 Jun.